The overwhelming majority of the industry conversation this cycle has centered on what role digital will play, and is playing in campaigns – specifically just how big that role will be. Digital practitioners, in only a few years, have gone from asking for a seat at the table to questioning why anyone else needs to be there at all.
But if you want hard evidence on what tools and tactics are shaping the 2018 cycle, just follow the money. Where the dollars are going indicates the reality is less sexy than digital evangelists would have you think.
Consider the recent Borrell Associates report. The ad spending forecaster, which has updated its forecast for 2018, is predicting that this year will be a record breaker for off-year spending. Their researchers’ early tally pegs all media spending around $8.8 billion.
What’s surprising is despite its massive growth during the last two cycles, online/digital media will only account for $1.8 billion of that total—some 20 percent. By comparison, TV is still king with broadcast and cable combine garnering over half of all political media revenue.
Moreover, print and radio, so often overlooked by today’s consultants, account for the next biggest slice of the media pie with an 8.1- and 7.7-percent share respectively.
Perhaps an even bigger surprise isn’t the media mix, but rather where the spending will take place. Local campaigns are where it’s at for budget, if not prestige. In fact, the budget gap is not even close when compared with national races.
No less than three times more money will be spent on candidates for state senate, state house, governors and other state offices than all the U.S Senate and House races combined. Add to that thousands of local elections like municipal government, judicial and school boards, and it becomes the clear majority of all political media expenditures.
The media mix for local campaigns is very different than strategies for federal candidates. Despite all the claims about pin-point targeting, you still need to reach likely voters. And LVs still consume local media.
“The more local the campaign, the more important newspaper becomes—both print and online, as well as radio and direct mail,” said John Kimball, former marketing chief for what is now the News Media Alliance, which represent nearly 2,000 diverse news organizations in the United States.
Kip Cassino, a VP at Borrell, has a word of caution for local media that could apply to consultants as well.
“There’s a mountain of political spending this year, and more than half is local—state level or below. But local media outlets can’t wait for it to come to them. They have to go out and find it. Knowing your audience is key. Targeting is far more important than mass reach these days.”
So there indeed may be a wave in 2018, but it might not be red or blue. It could be local.
Tom Edmonds is a longtime Republican media consultant.