Ask the Campaign Doc: Don’t Fear the Knocker

By Craig Varoga Q: Hey! It’s been a while since I sent a question, but would love to know your opinion of using Facebook for announcements and pushback. Hope you are doing well. A: Love it! It drives people to your online communications and will increase the number of fans who sign up. It also encourages immediate discussion regarding your announcements and will arm supporters with facts and talking points. But just make sure that your online consultant has a plan for capturing fans’ contact information in the campaign’s internal database. Q: I’m running for city council for the first time, and as much as I love meeting new people, I’m still really nervous about having to do the door-to-door part of my campaign. What is the best way to get over my fear of going door-to-door? A: First, thank you and congratulations for your candor. Many (if not most) candidates feel as you do, but would never fess up, which is essential to improving your performance.
Second, it really is important to conquer shyness, since it comes across as aloofness or arrogance in candidates—fair or unfair, it’s a fact.
Third, as a solution, consider going door-todoor in groups, so that you take one side of a street and a family member or staffer takes the other side. Or even have a staffer accompany you to the door to take notes and other followup information. It’ll be more efficient (you’ll do more doors and get accurate information), and it will free you to talk and will make the “in between” time more relaxed.Q: Does it make sense to start modeling the voter file now that the primary is over in order to optimize our mail, phones, and field program? Lots of people are talking about it, and I’m not quite sure of the effectiveness. Should we start now or wait until after Labor Day? A: Yes, it makes sense. It would be ridiculous to wait until after Labor Day, since you wouldn’t finish the modeling in time for communications, especially if your state has early voting or a big absentee-vote history.Q: How much of the budget should be devoted to field operations? A: Famous last words, but: There is no hard-andset dollar figure or percentage for any function in a campaign. Each election is unique, as is each jurisdiction and each candidate’s “fit” in his or her district.
For example, in a high turnout election (e.g., a targeted state in a presidential year), a candidate for state representative should not focus on turnout, but rather should zero in on persuadable and likely voters. Whereas in a special election in which two legislative candidates face each other with no one else on the ballot, it’s all about turning out respective bases, because no other campaigns are going to help. Either way, the budget needs are very different in these two divergent scenarios.
As your first order of business, have your consultant or field director calculate the best estimate of turnout, identify those voters by name and area, and then determine the cost of contacting them about six times through a combination of doorto- door canvassing, phones, and mail. You can then adjust your costs based on the other strategic needs of the campaign.Q: What do you think of Rasmussen polls? A: Hmmm, that’s a loaded question. Scott Rasmussen seems to be a reasonably good businessperson, having helped start ESPN. He’s great at hype, especially when it’s for the Drudge Report and Fox News. But—as the Washington Post recently reported—independent pollsters say that his firm “manages to violate nearly everything” that objective polls should do. Even Republican consultants have advised him to take on a Democratic partner to balance his analysis. In the spirit of parents who teach their children to keep their mouths shut if they have nothing nice to say, thanks for your question and it’s on to next month’s column.Craig Varoga has run local, state, and presidential campaigns for 20 years and specializes in independent expenditures as a partner at Independent Strategies. Send questions using Facebook or e-mail cvaroga@ independentstrategies.com