President Biden’s decision to not seek reelection and instead endorse Vice President Kamala Harris appears to have re-energized the Democratic Party, which has struggled with a historically high enthusiasm gap relative to Republicans.
Most notably, the Harris campaign announced they had raised a whopping $100 million dollars in 48 hours and another $150 million, the so-called money bomb from high-end Democratic donors, in the same period.
Beyond this, there is polling suggesting that Harris is poised to do better than Biden with women, young voters, and Black voters – groups Biden had been struggling with, thus potentially putting Harris in a more competitive position to face off against Donald Trump.
But Democrats up and down the ballot would be wise not to pop the champagne corks too quickly. The road ahead with just 100 days until the November election is fraught with challenges, as evidenced by a recent Quinnipiac Poll showing a narrow 2-point lead for Trump, and another poll showing Harris up only 2 points despite the massive Democratic enthusiasm about her candidacy.
Overall, we see five significant headwinds facing Harris’ candidacy, which could be instructive for other Democratic campaigns as well.
A Deep-Seated Concern About America Beyond Biden’s Age
Voters’ concerns about Biden extended far beyond the president’s age. Only 1 in 5 Americans, according to polling by Gallup, are satisfied with the way things are going in America. Furthermore, according to fivethirtyeight.com, 56 percent disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president and just 38 percent approve, putting him nearly 20 points underwater in polling terms (the net of his approval ratings minus his disapproval ratings). With so many voters seeing the country as being on the wrong track, as well as not being governed in a way they approve of, Trump’s campaign will undoubtedly link Biden and Harris together, making it difficult for Harris to separate herself from the current administration’s perceived shortcomings in the eyes of many American voters.
The American System is Seen as Badly Broken
Beyond the country simply being seen as “off on the wrong track”, there is a deeper underlying problem that Democrats face in the 2024 race for president. There’s a widespread perception that the country’s economic and political system is broken – perhaps fundamentally so. A July poll by ABC News and Ipsos found that just 27 percent agreed with a basic statement about the American Dream – ‘if you work hard, you’ll get ahead’ – down from 50 percent who agreed when the question was first asked in 2010. Moreover, 69 percent say that the American Dream does not hold true today – a pretty damning statistic that Harris running as a de facto incumbent will be forced to defe
Trump Leads on Key Issues
American voters are clear about the two main issues facing the country – the economy and immigration and they’re clear who they prefer to address them: Trump over Biden. Public polling has yet to be released about how Harris performs, but it’s nevertheless clear that Harris will need to explain her tenure leading the effort to secure the border, as well as outlining a bold economic agenda to create economic opportunities. It’s critical to get this right as Republicans will force her to defend the Biden record, which includes concerns that voters have about inflation and costs.
Comparing Tenures in Office – Trump Term Leads Biden Term
More broadly, Trump has more wind in his sails when it comes to whose presidency is better viewed – his term or Biden’s term. According to a wide range of polling, Trump’s term in office is viewed more favorably than Biden’s, a reality that Harris will be forced to defend. Polling data from the Pew Research Organization makes clear that while 41 percent say Trump was a good or great president that compares with only 28 percent who say the same of Biden’s administration.
Harris’s Favorability Trails Biden in Key States Like PA
While Harris is less well-known than Biden, she does face a favorability deficit. Her favorability ratings lag behind Biden’s in crucial battleground states like Pennsylvania, where she’s nine points less favorable than Biden. The reintroduction of Harris at next month’s convention will be critical to help her pivot away from and beyond being simply Biden’s number two.
What Democratic Campaigns Must Do
Voters are clearly clamoring for change and Harris, or really any Democratic candidate running in 2024, must address this reality with a bold vision for America’s future. The current Harris and Democratic message, focusing on access to reproductive freedom and defending democracy, appeals primarily to the base Democratic voters who are nearly certain to turn out and are absolutely certain to vote Democratic. To win over swing voters, Harris needs to offer something more to address the level of financial, social, and personal insecurity that many voters are feeling today.
Simply defending the status quo will not suffice. Harris needs to articulate a compelling vision that addresses the nation’s concerns and offers a path to a better future. Without this, Trump could very well retake the White House in November — potentially with full control of Congress as well.
Bradley Honan and Elisabeth Zeche are partners at the Democratic polling and data analytics firm Honan Strategy Group. Honan is also Co-President of the New York Metro Chapter of the American Association of Political Consultants and serves on the Board of Directors of the Public Relations Society of America’s New York Chapter.
