Christie Vilsack to Challenge Rep. Steve King in 2012

Christie Vilsack, the wife of current Secretary of Agriculture and former two-term Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack, announced plans last week to form an exploratory committee to run for Congress against Rep. Steve King in Iowa’s newly drawn 4th district.
 
King, a Republican in his fifth term who is extremely outspoken on issues including immigration and government debt, has attained a high profile as a result of his frequently controversial statements and has become a lightning rod for criticism from Democrats and progressives.
 
In a private meeting with Iowa Democratic state senators last Monday, Tom Vilsack reportedly said that a contest between his wife and King “will be a holy war.” The agriculture secretary has declined to comment publicly on his wife’s prospects in that race.
 
Iowa is set to lose one of its five congressional seats as a result of reapportionment. A redistricting plan recently approved by Iowa’s legislature and Republican governor Terry Branstad will merge the districts of Republican Rep. Tom Latham and Democratic Rep. Leonard Boswell and bring a number of more Democratic counties into King’s remodeled district in the state’s northwest. In order to run against King, Christie Vilsack would need to establish a residence in the new 4th district.
 
Even if she makes the move, Vilsack will face a number of challenges. The Washington Post’s Ed O’Keefe notes that Iowa’s congressional delegation has never included a woman. Furthermore, the newly drawn 4th district remains continues to lean Republican. CQ’s Greg Giroux tweeted last Wednesday that voters in the new district voted for Republican Gov. Branstad 59 to 37 percent in 2010 and favored defeated Republican gubernatorial candidate Jim Nussle, 49 to 48 percent, in 2006. President Obama lost the newly constructed district by 2 points in 2008, and Sen. John Kerry lost it by 11 points in 2004. (For an excellent overview of Iowa’s redistricting plan, check out the Swing State Project.)
 
Christie Vilsack had reportedly been considering a primary challenge to 2nd district Democratic Rep. David Loebsack, but appears to have ruled it out. Cary Covington, an associate professor of politics at the University of Iowa is unsurprised that Christie Vilsack would avoid challenging an incumbent Democrat given that there is already a brutal fight looming between Democratic Rep. Boswell and Republican Rep. Latham. Covington is, however, not sure that the 4th district will be sufficiently moderate to allow Vilsack to unseat King.
 
“I think if there were ever a time when King would be vulnerable, it would be this time,” says Covington. “She will be a strong, viable alternative.” However, King still has the wind at his back in a district with a decidedly Republican tilt to it. “The further north and west you go, the more conservative you get,” says Covington. “It will be a matter of [Vilsack] turning out her base.” Likewise, King will have to work hard to turn out the “legacy” counties that carry over from his old district where he is better known. “She will have to pick it up in the South and East,” says Covington.
 Noah Rothman is the online editor at C&E. E-mail him at nrothman@campaignsandelections.com