Interests Pump Cash into New York’s Surprisingly Competitive Special Election

An upcoming special election in upstate New York to replace former Republican Rep. Chris Lee, who resigned in February after the revelation that he had sent shirtless pictures of himself to a woman he met on Craigslist, has become a test of party strength ahead of 2012.
 
The May 24 election will pit 142nd district Republican Assemblywoman Jane Corwin against Democratic Erie County Clerk Kathy Hochul. Also running is Jack Davis, who will appear on the Tea Party ballot line. (Republicans claim that Davis is a closet Democrat who is attempting to split the conservative vote to ensure Hochul’s victory.) A YouTube video that surfaced on May 11 depicts Davis and an aide apparently attacking a tracker who repeatedly requests clarification from Davis on his reason for skipping a debate. Davis’s camp, for its part, claims that the tracker struck Davis first in a section of the tape that was not included in the YouTube video and that the candidate was merely pushing the camera out of the way.
 
When Lee resigned, few anticipated that the race to replace him would be competitive, given he GOP’s voter registration edge and recent dominance in the district. (In 2010, for example, Lee won re-election by 47 points.) However, in recent weeks two polls have showed Hochul, the Democrat, and Corwin, the Republican, in a tight race for the lead with Davis not far behind.
 
If Hochul pulls out a win, it could help validate the potency of Democratic attacks on Paul Ryan’s proposed budget and its replacement of the traditional Medicare funding system with vouchers, which she has made a signature issue. A Democratic victory would help counter fears among donors that the party’s electoral prospects are on the wane.
 
Recognizing the very real risk of losing seat that should be safely theirs, Republican operatives have begun to pump money into the race. American Crossroads, a “Super PAC” that spent over $20 million in support of Republican candidates in 2010, committed to spending $350,000 in the district last week alone—a significant investment for a largely rural district. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, though mired in debt, had no choice but to respond and committed to spend $250,000 last week in support of Hochul.
 
Joshua Green of the Atlantic argues that momentum has shifted to the Democrat in the race and points to the success of her attacks on the Ryan budget and Medicare plan as an indication of the waning influence of the Tea Party in American politics.
 
Jeff Koch, a professor of political science at the State University of New York Geneseo, which is located in the 26th district, is surprised by the reversal of fortunes for the parties in the district. “In a race like this, the Democrats can only win, as even if Corwin takes the seat, it really is what is expected given the partisanship of the district,” says Koch. “A loss by Corwin, or even a close win, will generate talk about the Democrats not being very vulnerable in 2012.”
 
Koch agrees that the race has become a test of national issues, but he cautions that the results of the special election will have at most a limited impact on national politics. “Whoever wins is not likely to be there long,” says Koch. “New York is losing two seats to reapportionment, and that district is likely to disappear.” In the struggle to survive redistricting, he points out, the incumbent with the least seniority is most likely to find his or her district eliminated. Furthermore, the northwestern part of the state, where the 26th district is located, has lost the most population over the last decade and twelve-term Democrat Rep. Louise Slaughter, whose 28th district is adjacent to the 26th, is highly unlikely to have her district eliminated or to be forced to face off against another incumbent next year.
 Noah Rothman is the online editor for C&E. E-mail him at nrothman@campaignsandelections.com