Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez May Run for Senate in the Lone Star State

Retired Army Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez, who was commander of U.S. forces in Iraq from June 2003 through June 2004, appears has been approached by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to run next year for the state’s U.S. Senate set to be vacated by Republican Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison.
 
Sanchez has many appealing characteristics for a Texas Democratic senatorial candidate. In a recent interview, Sanchez described himself as a social “progressive†and a “fiscal conservative.†Democrats are betting that his relatively moderate political positions and appeal to Hispanics (who make up nearly 37 percent of the state’s population) could pull in enough votes to best the as-yet-unknown Republican challenger.
 
DSCC Chair Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) listed Texas among her “six in ‘12†campaign targets that Democrats hope they can to flip. Sen. Hutchison herself took the seat from Texas’s last Democratic senator, Bob Krueger, in 1993.
 
Democratic operatives hope that having President Obama at the top of the ticket may bolster the chances of down-ballot Democratic candidates in Texas, but their enthusiasm is tempered by the reality that the state has not voted for a Democrat for president since 1976.
 
In recent years, Democrats have repeatedly trumpeted their prospects for statewide elections in Texas only to fall short come Election Day.
 
In 2010, when popular former Houston Mayor Bill White ran for governor against incumbent Rick Perry, polls showed him gaining traction as late as September, but he went on to lose by thirteen points.
 
In 2008, Sen. John Cornyn faced Democratic State Rep. Rick Noriega. Despite polling below 50 percent the summer before the election, Cornyn won comfortably with 55 percent of the vote amidst a Democratic wave that some said threatened the Republican Texas establishment.
 
In 2006, Democrats seized on a September 2006 Wall Street Journal/Zogby International poll that put Hutchison under 50 percent against Democratic senatorial nominee Barbra Ann Radnofsky. Hutchison won re-election with more than 60 percent of the vote in a year when Democrats captured control of both the House and Senate.
 
Dean Rindy, president of the Austin-based Democratic consulting firm Rindy Miller Media, considers chronic Democratic enthusiasm for a Texas comeback understandable. He says that polls tend to reflect a competitive race in late spring and early summer, but that Republicans’ overwhelming structural advantage always reasserts itself by Election Day.
 
“While my heart and hopes are with [Sanchez], I don’t think he has a chance,†says Rindy, adding that a Sanchez campaign is unlikely to drive up turnout among Hispanics. “The Hispanic population in Texas keeps increasing, but the number of Hispanic voters increases at a far slower pace,†Rindy says. “Anglo-white voters still make up 65 to 70 percent of the vote in Texas and they still vote two-thirds Republican.â€Â
 
Rindy does not believe that President Obama will provide much help for Democrats further down the ticket. “In 2010, there was a huge Republican tidal wave fueled mostly by animosity towards Obama,†says Rindy. “I don’t think Obama has legs in Texas, let alone coattails.â€Â
 
Before Sanchez faces a Republican opponent, he will need to make it through a potentially competitive Democratic primary. Perhaps his biggest problem there will be explaining his service during the initial invasion and occupation of Iraq and the Abu Ghraib scandal to anti-war Democrats.
 
Todd Olsen, a partner with the Austin-based Republican consulting firm Olsen & Shuvalov, says that overcoming anti-war sentiment on the left will be Sanchez’s toughest job. “I think he would have a hard time with the nuttier wing of his party that has eaten up and spit out Democratic primary candidates time and time again, and has already come after him when he was serving bravely before,†says Olsen.
 
However, Olsen says that a tough primary campaign could be an asset to Sanchez in the general election. “Texans view the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq personally, because so many Texans were asked to serve by the president and take a leading role in developing a military strategy and carrying it out,†says Olsen. “I think it would be hard for independent Texans to watch [Sanchez] go through a primary where he gets attacked for things he shouldn’t be attacked for.â€Â
 Noah Rothman is the online editor at C&E. E-mail him at nrothman@campaignsandelections.com