A little over a month ago, NY-20 looked like a great place for Republicans to begin their comeback. Though the district had voted for Obama and for Democratic Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, Republicans held a registration advantage. After Gillibrand was promoted to the Senate, Jim Tedisco, the Republican nominee for her seat and a longtime state politician, had a huge advantage over Democratic candidate Scott Murphy.Any of our readers if familiar with happened next: as RNC Chair Michael Steele fumbled his way through his first few months, the race became increasingly important nationally and so Washington Republicans pour money and advertising into the race, slamming Scott Murphy for his support for dirty, bailed-out businessmen and, hey, terrorists, too. Voters said they were sick of the negativity and Tedisco fought to differentiate himself from the national campaigning by broadcasting his own positive messages.And Scott Murphy kept gaining and gaining.Bad news for the GOP: That gain has continued and, for the first time, Murphy is leading in the polls. Though the lead is not statistically significant and questions about who will vote in this special election remain, some pollsters are prohibitively calling Murphy the favorite for Tuesday’s vote.