NRSC Chair Tim Scott Predicts Record-Breaking Spending in 2026 Senate Races
National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Tim Scott, R-S.C., is predicting a historically expensive 2026 midterm cycle, in which just a couple Senate races could cost upwards of $1 billion.
Scott told donors at the NRSC’s winter meeting in Palm Beach, Fla. over the weekend that next year’s Senate race in Maine, where Republican Sen. Susan Collins is up for reelection, could see as much as $600 million in spending, according to a GOP fundraiser who heard Scott’s remarks.
Scott also predicted that the price tag for the Senate race in North Carolina will likely run even higher, the donor said. Scott’s remarks on 2026 spending were first reported on Monday by Politico.
If Scott’s predictions end up coming to fruition, the 2026 Senate elections will be the most expensive midterm cycle yet, with more than one race shattering the spending record currently held by the 2020 contest in Georgia between Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff and Republican former Sen. David Perdue. That race ultimately cost more than $500 million, according to the campaign finance watchdog OpenSecrets.
Senate Republicans are defending 22 seats in 2026, though Collins is the only Republican facing reelection in a state that former Vice President Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential race.
But the actual battleground for Republicans is likely to be much smaller. Scott told donors at the NRSC meeting that, in addition to Collins’ seat in Maine, only North Carolina and Ohio stand as true defensive targets. He also said that Republicans are eyeing offensive opportunities in Michigan, New Hampshire and Georgia, where Ossoff is up for reelection.
An Ambitious Goal for the NRSC
Punchbowl News reported on Monday that Scott outlined a goal of winning Republicans a 55-seat Senate majority in the 2026 midterms. That would require the GOP to protect every one of its incumbents, while flipping two Democratic seats.
Ossoff’s race in Georgia is seen as the most likely pickup opportunity for Republicans. Ossoff beat Perdue in a runoff there by less than 55,000 votes – just over 1 percentage point – in 2020, and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who’s term-limited from seeking another four years as governor, is widely seen as a possible contender to take on Ossoff.
Democrats also have to defend an open Senate seat in Michigan after Sen. Gary Peters announced late last month that he won’t seek reelection in 2026.
But Scott also named a few other pickup opportunities for Republicans, according to Punchbowl News, listing off Minnesota, Virginia and New Mexico – three Democratic-leaning states that are likely to be long-shot targets for the NRSC next year.
