Republican Presidential Contenders Pin Hopes on South Carolina

In the race for presidential nominations, Iowa’s caucus and New Hampshire’s primary have the potential to make or break a national campaign. A win in either of the two states can put a dark-horse candidate into contention, while a loss can damage the credibility of a frontrunner beyond repair.
 
In 2008, wins in Iowa buoyed the candidacies of Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee. Likewise, then-Senators Joe Biden (D-DE) and Chris Dodd (D-CT) withdrew from the presidential race after their distant finishes in the state.
 
However, with the slightly condensed calendar of 2012, other early states such as South Carolina and Nevada are gaining in importance for Republican presidential hopefuls. While some candidates continue to focus on Iowa and New Hampshire, several others are looking to the Deep South in particular for an early boost.
 
Potential candidates with roots in the South, such as former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee have obvious reasons to count on strong support in the South Carolina primary.
 
Huckabee, who has polled strongly in many early national surveys of the likely Republican electorate, has likewise polled well in South Carolina. There, a January 28 to 30 Public Policy Polling survey put him in the lead with 26 points to Mitt Romney’s 20.
 
After a surprise Iowa win in 2008, Huckabee continues to show strength there, though he could face fierce competition if potential candidates such as Sarah Palin and Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) with strong appeal to the state’s socially conservative GOP base end up running. Bachmann has the added advantage of local roots, having grown up in Waterloo, Iowa. Other contenders from nearby states, such as former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, could also trade on their Midwestern roots to generate traction in Iowa. 
 
Several lesser-known Republicans who have expressed interest in a presidential run are setting their sights on South Carolina. These include former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and former Utah Governor and the Obama administration’s current Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman.
 
While Santorum is hoping that his focus on social issues resonates in the South, Huntsman’s focus on South Carolina is an acknowledgement that Romney is considered to have the edge in early primary states such as New Hampshire and Nevada. New Hampshire is seen as a Romney stronghold due to his experience as governor of neighboring Massachusetts. Meanwhile, in Nevada, the significant Mormon population is seen as loyal to Romney, though both he and Huntsman are members of that faith. Given that the Iowa caucuses reward strong organization, which the Huntsman campaign so far lacks, South Carolina is the default focus for him.
 
David Woodard, a professor of politics at Clemson University in South Carolina and a Republican political consultant, says the Republican primary battle in the state is less settled than it has been at any time in the last three decades. “I think it will boil down to endorsements from prominent politicians here,” he says. “I still think that [Sen. Jim] DeMint is the person to watch. Whoever he endorses would be huge.” While Woodard normally places little stock in endorsements, he says that with an electorate that is this up for grabs, any bit of momentum will help.
 
Woodard does not expect a major shakeup from Tea Party supporters. He predicts instead that the state’s firmly entrenched Republican political establishment will support an establishment candidate. “I think we have had an influx of new energy, but not necessarily a recalibration of politics,” he says, adding that South Carolina’s Republican presidential primary voters are protective of the old guard and tend to support winners rather than outliers.
 
As evidence, Woodard recalls 1988, when the Christian Coalition’s Pat Robertson beat George H.W. Bush in Iowa, and many believed that Robertson would enjoy similar success with South Carolina’s Christian conservatives. However, George H. W. Bush won South Carolina with 49 percent of the vote. Likewise, in 2000, John McCain had a great deal of momentum after beating establishment favorite George W. Bush in the New Hampshire primary, but saw his hopes come to a halt in South Carolina.
 
“Despite the flair of new faces and energy, there is still a core of conservative, establishment Republicans who tend to show up at the polls,” says Woodard.
 Noah Rothman is the online editor at C&E. E-mail him at nrothman@campaignsandelections.com.