Special Election Likely in New York’s 26th District

It’s been just about a month since New York Republican Congressman Chris Lee resigned after it was revealed that he had e-mailed a shirtless photo of himself to a woman he had met on Craigslist. Now, politicos in New York’s 26th district are laying the groundwork for an as-yet-undeclared special election to fill the vacant seat.
 
A bill that would extend the timeline of special elections in New York recently passed by the state’s Assembly and Senate and soon to be signed by Governor Andrew Cuomo suggests that the governor is likely to call a special election for the 26th district soon. The bill changes the deadline for holding a special election after it is set by the governor from 30 to 40 days to 70 to 80 days in order to accommodate absentee ballots from military personnel serving abroad.
 
This would be the third special election in New York State since the 2008 general election. In March 2009, Democrat Scott Murphy edged Republican Jim Tedisco by a single point in the race to replace 20th district Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, who had been appointed to replace Hillary Clinton in the U.S. Senate. In November 2009, Democrat Bill Owens won a tightly contested three-way race against Republican Dee Dee Scozzafava and Conservative Doug Hoffman to replace outgoing 23rd district Republican Rep. John McHugh, who had been tapped to serve as President Obama’s army secretary.
 
New York’s 26th District is rated as an R+6 district by Charlie Cook’s Partisan Voting Index and has not been represented by a Democrat since Rep. Maurice Hinchey was reapportioned to the 22nd district early last decade. Chris Lee was first elected in 2008 with 55 percent of the vote and was re-elected in 2010 with 73 percent of the vote.
 
As there are no special election primaries in New York, the state party’s county chairs chose the party’s nominee. The Republicans have fielded local Assemblywoman Jane Corwin as their nominee. David Malpass, who lost a Republican Senate primary last year and is considering running again for his party’s nomination to face Sen. Gillibrand in 2012, recently endorsed Corwin through his organization, GrowPAC, which is promoting her candidacy in a heavily circulated Web video.
 
The Democrats have not yet settled on a nominee, and several high-profile potential candidates have declined to run, including Erie County Comptroller Mark Poloncarz and Assemblyman Sam Hoyt. The party is now reportedly courting Erie County Clerk Kathy Hochul and Alice Kryzan, who lost to Lee in 2008. The national Democratic Party sent a team of advisors into the district in late February to assess the field of potential nominees, but the party is unlikely to spend heavily on a race it has little chance of winning. However, Hochul told the Buffalo News that the Democrats’ strategy in the district was to “downplay expectations” ahead of a full-court press before the special election.
 
Professor Jeffery Koch, chair of the political department at the State University of New York Geneseo, says that it is a challenge to get a Democrat to run in this Republican-leaning district. “In 2010, the Democrat spent less than $5,000 because no one believed he had a chance to win against Chris Lee,” says Koch. “He [Philip Fedele] was essentially a sacrificial lamb. There is no money because people don’t want to invest in a losing cause.” Koch believes that, without a nationwide pro-Democratic wave, the 26th district is the Republicans’ to lose.
 
Whoever wins the special election to represent the district is likely to face a rude awakening when the state’s congressional districts are redrawn before the 2012 elections. New York is set to lose two congressional seats, and the new representative of the 26th district will be at a distinct disadvantage in the process, which is likely to significantly reshape or even eliminate the 26th district.
 
Republicans hold a narrow edge in New York’s Senate, while Democrats control the Assembly and the governorship. History suggests that Democrats and Republicans will each sacrifice a safe seat in the upcoming round of redistricting. “That district is likely to be redrawn,” says Koch, adding that whoever wins the special election may not even live within the new boundaries of the district come 2012.
 Noah Rothman is the online editor at C&E. E-mail him at nrothman@campaignsandelections.com