The Fierce Urgency of 2009

National Democrats were flying high after President Barack Obama’s commanding win this past November, but 2009’s handful of elections offer the GOP some high-profile chances to show it can still compete in 2010. And Democrats are, of course, looking to cement their winning streak. Here’s a briefing on the top three races… Virginia Governor: The McAuliffe Steamroller
It’s the biggest day of his boss’ fledgling gubernatorial campaign, but if Mike Henry is nervous he doesn’t show it in the least. Henry is watching volunteers ready giant “McAuliffe for Governor” signs outside the Greater Richmond Convention Center, and he goes nearly 15 minutes without looking at his BlackBerry. That has to be some sort of record for a campaign manager.
His candidate—former Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe—is preparing for his pitch to the party’s annual Jefferson–Jackson Dinner. For a campaign described by the Associated Press as having all “the subtlety of a runaway cement truck,” it’s being true to form here in Richmond.
“Well, everybody knows we have the money,” Henry says smiling. “So we don’t have to prove that.” They came prepared anyway, though. The McAuliffe campaign had more than 300 volunteers, nearly 1,000 signs blanketing nearby streets, a rally led by a 15-member marching band, and a well-attended grassroots training session. The campaign even had McAuliffe fortune cookies to hand out and two McAuliffe “bat-lights” soaring into the night sky.
Henry has a long political pedigree in Virginia Democratic politics. This is his second-straight governor’s race as campaign manager, and it’s likely his toughest challenge. McAuliffe is fighting the perception that he’s an outsider—despite having a Virginia address for the past 17 years—and some critics dismiss him as nothing more than a national moneyman. As much as McAuliffe is putting on an early show of his campaign coffers, he doesn’t have many of the endorsements and local backing that his two Democratic challengers enjoy.
Former state Del. Brian Moran (the younger brother of longtime U.S. Rep. Jim Moran) and state Sen. Creigh Deeds are running on their Richmond experience and longtime service to the state, and neither are pushover primary opponents. Deeds was the party’s 2005 nominee for state attorney general—a race he lost by fewer than 400 votes to Republican Bob McDonnell, who is now the GOP’s presumptive nominee for governor. Like Deeds, Moran is a former chairman of Virginia’s House Democratic Caucus, where he won wide praise from activists for helping Democrats encroach on the chamber’s Republican majority. He also boasts a solid base throughout Northern Virginia, the region that could make or break McAuliffe.
The primary sets up a diffi cult choice for Democrats in what is 2009’s most important electoral battleground. The party is anxious to prove it doesn’t need a guy named Obama at the top of the ticket to continue to make gains in traditionally Republican territory. But many are unsure that McAuliffe, who made his reputation as a national party fundraiser and was most recently the “Hillary for President” poster boy, is the candidate to do it. Republicans, meanwhile, are desperate to prove Virginia hasn’t even turned purple—much less the shade of
blue the Obama campaign was able to paint it.
“We’re looking at a completely different election in 2009, with a completely different turnout model,” says Phil Cox, who is McDonnell’s campaign manager. He says the state hasn’t trended nearly as far away from the GOP as some Democrats would like to think.
Still, Democrats should be in the driver’s seat here; and with Gov. Tim Kaine heading the DNC, the party will be directing significant resources and on-the-ground wisdom to the state. Obama made big gains in Virginia’s suburban and exurban counties in his 2008 win—in some cases winning traditionally Republican regions by larger margins than former President George Bush carried them by in 2000 and 2004. And the state is awash in new voters—the vast majority of whom were mobilized by Obama.
“You’re going to get 15 percent of the most focused Democrats turning out [in the primary],” says Steve Jarding, senior adviser to the Moran campaign. “I believe they will look at this and say, ‘We have to go with somebody that we think can win in the end.’” And that’s not McAuliffe, Jarding says: “Can a national Democrat, who’s probably more liberal than Virginia’s more mainstream constituency, convince people he really does have our backs?”
Most insiders think primary turnout will hover somewhere between 250,000 and 350,000 voters. The McAuliffe campaign is betting it can attract more of those committed Virginia Democrats than its opposition thinks, and that Terry’s ties to the Clintons won’t become a drag on the campaign.
“The thing that attracts both the proven Democratic primary voters and the new voters to Terry is that he’s worked hard to rebuild the party,” Henry says. “He focused on technology [at the DNC] and made sure the voter file was state-of-the-art. And he was an aggressive advocate for Obama during the general election. That’s attractive to Obama supporters.”
But for Moran or Deeds supporters, McAuliffe is just too big a risk at a time when the GOP is putting up one of its toughest general election candidates in years.
“Democrats in Virginia get the importance of keeping the governor’s mansion,” says Joe Abbey, campaign manager for Creigh Deeds. “I just don’t think it’s a decision they’ll make based on the size of the candidate’s bank account.”
McAuliffe reported raising nearly $1 million during the initial fundraising period which ended this past December. Rival Brian Moran reported some $750,000 during that same period, while Creigh Deeds raised less than $700,000. Republican Bob McDonnell pulled in a robust $1.6 million in that first quarter. Of course McAuliffe has hosted a slew of big-money events since, including a private fundraiser headlined by former President Bill Clinton that reportedly brought in $350,000. And his campaign points out that McAuliffe started raising money late.
Mike Henry has a wealth of Virginia experience, including managing Mark Warner’s 2008 Senate race and Kaine’s 2005 gubernatorial race. Like many on McAuliffe’s staff, Henry has actually worked against Obama—once as campaign manager for Blair Hull, the Democrat who opposed Obama in his 2004 Senate primary, and again as Clinton’s deputy campaign manager last year.
There’s a maze of connections between staffers for all three of the Democratic campaigns. Most of them have worked for both Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, and are now dispersed among the primary contenders. McAuliffe senior adviser Mo Elleithee worked both Warner’s and Kaine’s gubernatorial races, as well as the Clinton campaign. McAuliffe’s lead pollster is Peter Brodnitz, who played the same role for Warner in ’01 and Kaine in ’05.
Deed’s campaign manager Joe Abbey was Henry’s deputy in Warner’s senate run. And Moran senior adviser Steve Jarding managed Warner’s 2001 gubernatorial race. Along with Jarding, former Warner media man Joe Trippi has signed on with Moran. Bob Corn of Landmark Strategies will do targeting for the Moran campaign; previously, he’s targeted for both Kaine and Warner. And Mame Reilly, Warner’s former political director, is working for Moran.
“Joe Abbey actually gave me this binder,” says Henry, pointing to a leather portfolio stuffed with his campaign notes. “Now,” he jokes, “it holds the information that will destroy them.” He’s watching a small campaign rally outside the convention center while waiting for McAuliffe to arrive at the party’s Jefferson–Jackson Dinner. Henry was hoping his opponents would be holding competing rallies, but there are none in sight.
“I was kind of hoping they would do something,” Henry says. “It kind of takes the fun out of it.” All in the spirit of friendly competition, he assures me.
For his part, Abbey likens the day to a high school reunion. “We were joking because last year we were all putting up the same [campaign] signs,” he says. “This year we were having a sign war.”
Later that night, the mood changed quickly when Brian Moran took some shots at McAuliffe. “We need a fighter, not a fundraiser,” Moran told the crowd of some 3,000 state Democratic activists. The line was actually met with a smattering of boos from the audience, which had 39 tables of McAuliffe backers.
The Democratic contest isn’t likely to be in full swing until later this month, but Republicans are already basking in the emerging feud. “They’re going to wage a bloody, expensive and bitter primary,” says Phil Cox. “By the time it’s over, they’re going to be broke, tired and exhausted. We’re spending that time reaching out to voters and building our campaign.” NJ Governor’s Race: The Reformer and the Millionaire
By just about any measure, New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine is in trouble. Approval ratings for the Democratic incumbent are below 40 percent and the state is mired in a deepening fiscal crisis, highlighted by a statewide unemployment rate that’s now at a 15-year high.
Although the RNC is focused on taking back Virginia, a win in the Garden State would be a nice boost. And New Jersey Republicans think they might finally have the right candidate in former U.S. Attorney Christopher
Christie.
Christie is the frontrunner for the GOP’s gubernatorial nod, and his campaign raised $500,000 in its first three weeks. His tenure as U.S. attorney saw the prosecution of well over 100 state elected officials on corruption charges—without a single acquittal.
“Just look at the ballot test,” says Mike DuHaime, a general consultant for the Christie campaign. DuHaime
served as deputy campaign manager for John McCain last year, and he’s run candidates against Corzine before. He worked on Republican Bob Franks’ 2000 Senate run; Franks lost by 4 points.
“Corzine has spent over $100 million in two elections, and he’s an incumbent in a Democratic state,” DuHaime says. “[Yet], his numbers are in the mid-30’s to low-40’s.” In the weeks after Christie announced, Corzine’s poll numbers took a dive. A February Monmouth University poll put the governor’s approval rating at just 34 percent. That’s a 9-point drop in just a month. And a February Quinnipiac University poll had Christie leading Corzine in a head-to-head matchup by 44 to 38 percent.
But it’s unlikely Garden State Republicans are suffering from overconfidence. The party has appeared poised to win a statewide seat time and again over the past few cycles, yet hasn’t had any luck since Christine Todd Whitman was reelected in 1997. Bret Schundler came up short against Jim McGreevey in the 2001 governor’s race; a last-minute candidate switch in 2002 held off Republican Senate candidate Doug Forrester; and Tom Kean Jr. failed to knock off Sen. Bob Menendez in 2006.
“Right now, this is all about Jon Corzine,” says Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray. “Voters arereally unhappy with his performance as governor right now, but that has nothing to do with Christie. People still know next to nothing about him.”
The challenge for Christie is introducing himself to New Jersey voters while remaining in the center, even as his Republican primary opponents try to pull him to the right. For the GOP, winning in the Garden State means being a different kind of Republican—the electoral math necessitates winning independent voters nearly 2 to 1 statewide if there’s an R in front of your name.
Despite the dour numbers, Corzine’s greatest asset will be his money. Corzine will not accept public financing for his reelection bid—likely a reflection of his concern that his Wall Street background has morphed into a major negative. That financial advantage is a big deal, especially in New Jersey—a state blanketed almost entirely by two of the country’s most expensive media markets.
“Given what’s happening nationally right now, I can’t think of a better candidate than Jon Corzine,” says Ray Glendening, political director at the Democratic Governor’s Association. “His resume and expertise fit the needs of the times right now.”
For their part, Democrats will work to turn Christie’s time as U.S. attorney into a negative. They’re already knocking him as a Bush fundraiser and appointee, a line some think still has juice among New Jersey voters. They’ll also try to paint many of his political prosecutions as partisan. The Corzine camp has brought on former Star Ledger reporter Jeff Whelan—who once covered Christie—to head up its opposition research team. No one from Corzine’s camp was interested in talking for this piece.
While the heart of this race is a long way off, polling shows Christie with at least one early advantage: At press time, Quinnipiac had Christie leading Corzine among independent voters 49 to 24 percent.
Mike DuHaime seems confident Christie can overperform even in strongly Democratic areas, and hold the line in parts of South Jersey that have been trending away from the GOP. That could be enough to help the GOP to a long-awaited statewide victory this November. NY-20 Special Election: Steele’s Proving Ground
In the special election to fill New York’s vacant 20th Congressional District, the pressure is on for new RNC Chairman Michael Steele. Soon after Steele was elected party chair, he sent one of his top staffers packing to Albany. For Steele, it’s a race that’s critical not just because it’s his first test as party leader, but because it’s one the GOP shouldn’t lose.
The 20th District is traditionally Republican territory. The seat’s former occupant—Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand—won it in 2006 with a moderate to conservative record on fiscal policy and gun rights, and an assist from scandal-plagued Republican incumbent John Sweeney. (A month before Election Day, word came of Sweeney’s involvement with a lobbyist connected to Jack Abramoff. And a week before the election, news came of a 2005 domestic disturbance 911 call from Sweeney’s wife.) Outspent by nearly $1 million, Gillibrand won a narrow 5-point victory. Her reputation as a moderate propelled her to an easy win in 2008, in an easy year for Democrats. Republicans think Gillibrand’s ’06 victory was an outlier, though—a bad Republican candidate in a bad election year for the GOP—and the party is now cautiously optimistic it can paint the district red again.
It’s unlikely to mean much for the state party, which has struggled since former Gov. George Pataki left office. A win in NY-20 means a lot more for the national party right now. Republican and Democratic Party leaders met to select their candidates for the seat in late January and early February. Republicans tapped James Tedisco, the minority leader of the New York State Assembly. Democrats picked venture capitalist and first-time candidate Scott Murphy whose appeal lies, in part, in his ability to self-fund his campaign. Murphy reportedly came to the table with some $600,000—a mix of donor commitments and his own money.
But it’s Tedisco who has the early advantage. Republicans hold a 70,000 voter registration advantage in the district, and Tedisco already enjoys high name recognition in a sizeable portion of the 20th, where his assembly district overlaps. He has a reputation as a solid fundraiser who has already gotten help from Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney.
“The national [Republican] party is fully in,” says Tedisco campaign manager Brian Nevin. “They believe this is what will re-energize the party.” With the special election set for March 31, the GOP hopes a win could buoy hopes for the year’s two headline gubernatorial races.
On top of a handful of full-time Tedisco staffers, the NRCC had staffers on the ground in early February, before New York Gov. David Paterson had even set a date for the special election. On the Democratic side, Murphy spokesman Ryan Rudominer is on loan from the DCCC.
“We have a guy who’s not a career politician, he’s a career businessman,” Rudominer says. “People want a fresh approach, and that’s what Scott brings.”
As one of the few contests slated for 2009, the race is also shaping up as a national grassroots battle with Republican bloggers and activists hoping the contest will be a proving ground for the party’s emerging netroots. This from Tedisco’s eAdvocacy director on TechRepublican: “New Media is going to take this highly favorable district and allow Republican activists from around the country to tap in. We’ll make an appeal to the blogosphere … DailyKos and HuffPo have usually guided the debate; can we count on bloggers to rally around the importance of this race?”
On the left, bloggers are already heavily engaged and Murphy is raising money through ActBlue. If the GOP’s grassroots efforts can equal the left, it could very well be a springboard for activists heading into 2010.
“The Republicans have made this their race,” says one Democrat familiar with the campaign. “And at the end of the day, it’s a Republican district. They really should win it.” Shane D’Aprile is senior editor at Politics magazine