The Quiet Power of Ovide Lamontagne

Ovide Lamontagne may have narrowly lost a 2010 Senate primary in New Hampshire, but that has not reduced his importance to Republican politics in the Granite State.
 
Lamontagne ran in the primary with Tea Party backing, and his defeat by 1.2 percent at the hands of Kelly Ayotte (who went on to win the general election) was seen at the time as a blow to the more conservative wing of the New Hampshire Republican party. However, with Ayotte now spending most of her time in D.C., and Reps. Frank Guinta and Charlie Bass representing the old guard of the GOP, Lamontagne has found a new niche to occupy—de facto kingmaker of Republican presidential hopefuls.
 
On Tuesday, Lamontagne’s Granite Oath PACannounced plans to host Rudy Giuliani on May 12 as part of its “house party” series, a New Hampshire primary season tradition. Giuliani, who ran for the GOP presidential nomination in 2008, recently said he was leaving the “door open” to another run for the nomination, buoyed by regular national polls of the field of candidates in which no nominee has broken away from the pack.
 
Other members of the prospective presidential field who have committed to appearances in the PAC’s house party series include former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Cain made his appearance last night, while Gingrich is scheduled to appear on May 25. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty have already appeared at similar events.
 
Lamontagne formed the Granite Oath PAC last December and has so far disclosed only $14,202 in receipts with no spending. This Friday night, Lamontagne will be the guest of honor at a $50-per-plate / $500-per-table dinner in Manchester hosted by the New Hampshire chapter of the 501(c)(4) organization Americans For Prosperity. Santorum, Cain, and Pawlenty as well as South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann are all scheduled to be in attendance.
 
“We chose Ovide to honor based on his history that goes back three decades fighting in New Hampshire for lower taxes and smaller government,” said Corey Lewandowski, the New Hampshire state director for Americans For Prosperity. At the dinner, Lamontagne will be presented with AFP’s “conservative of the year” award.
 
Despite having run for governor in 1996 (a race he lost by more than 17 points) in addition to last year’s Senate run, Lamontagne remains largely unknown to the broader universe of New Hampshire voters, says Andrew Smith, an associate professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire. Smith adds that Lamontagne’s reluctance to get out in front of the presidential primary process is an intelligent attempt to hedge his bets.
 
“Ovide has the most to gain,” says Smith. “He is out of office now and wants to run for governor, probably, in 2012. There is mutual benefit for candidates trying to woo him. They want his support, and he wants their support should he run for governor.” Smith observes that Lamontagne is unlikely, however, to be a major fundraising resource for presidential candidates because participants in the New Hampshire primary traditionally raise their money out of state. 
 
Smith is cautious about ascribing to Lamontagne the level of political influence that some of the prospective GOP primary candidates have. “Turnout is much higher in a presidential primary than a statewide primary [in New Hampshire],” says Smith, noting that 50 percent of registered Republicans may turn out for a presidential primary as opposed to just 20 percent in a midterm statewide primary.
 
Dante Scala, also an associate professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire, says that there is no question that Lamontagne is in an interesting position politically. “It is rare that you see someone finish second in a primary and enjoy such a boost from it,” says Scala. “He is a sign to New Hampshire Republicans that you can be an atypical New Hampshire Republican and still do well in Republican politics.”
 
However, Scala is skeptical that an endorsement from Lamontagne would be likely to appreciably affect the electorate. “It would run against history to think that someone could really move that many votes in a New Hampshire presidential primary unless you are a sitting governor with an organization waiting in the wings; like [former Gov. John] Sununu was to [George H.W.] Bush [in 1988].”
 
Mike Dupre, a senior research fellow with the Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire, argues that in such a wide-open field, endorsements can have limited effect. He also points out that New Hampshire’s semi-open primary allows a broad range of voters to participate. “You will have Democratic and Republican-leaning independent voters in this primary,” says Dupre. “Without a Democratic primary, don’t underestimate the power of independents in this race.”
 Noah Rothman is the online editor at C&E. E-mail him at nrothman@campaignsandelections.com