The last 12 months have been a roll coaster for the campaign industry. What was supposed to be a two-step coronation for Hillary Clinton turned into a slugfest first with Bernie Sanders and later Donald Trump.
During the Republican presidential primary, consultants working for party-favored candidates found themselves frustrated by Trump’s social and traditional media mastery.
In this unpredictable environment, down-ballot candidates struggled to define themselves and consultants were forced to wake up to the cyber security dangers that corporations have been dealing with for years. Here are the consulting stories that shaped 2016:
Epic Hacking
The cyber security story of 2016 extends back to last December, when Sanders’ staffers took a look into Clinton’s proprietary NGP VAN data files. The data breach became the subject of candidate debates and pushed the once-sleepy realm of partisan data vendors into the national spotlight. That incident, however, was just the beginning.
Democrats were, in short order, the victims of hacks targeting the DNC, DCCC and Clinton campaign. Operatives were personally targeted, with John Podesta the highest profile victim. While the committees faced complex cyber attacks, Podesta, who was Clinton’s campaign chairman, appears to have been undone by a typo. It should serve as an enduring lesson that consultants need to practice more than what they preach. It’s not enough to avoid putting anything in writing that you don’t want to see on the front page of the New York Times.
#NeverTrump
As the primary season got underway, top members of the AAPC argued behind the scenes about the group’s need to publicly repudiate then-candidate Trump, who famously launched his campaign with a tirade against Mexican illegal immigrant “rapists.”
The trade group decided against it. But that didn’t stop some high-profile GOP consultants including Liz Mair, Katie Packer and Rick Wilson from launching the #NeverTrump movement.
#NeverTrump broke a taboo for consultants – particularly GOP consultants – who had previously shied away from attacking candidates who weren’t running against a paying client. Their effort has rewritten consultant rules of conduct — and could still further. In fact, Wilson has continued to his anti-Trump effort and shows no sign of slowing down.
The Clinton Machine Breaks Down
Clinton’s data analytics team was highly vaunted before Election Day. For instance, even her head of human resources, Nathaniel Koloc, was heralded for how he hired “a staff as diverse as America.” The fact that that staff was on the losing end of a bitter contest could mean that the story of 2016 carries over for years to come.
The two successful Obama campaigns gave birth to a host of new firms, including Bully Pulpit Interactive, which this year has grown into one of the industry’s largest digital shops. Clinton’s campaign was expected to do the same. Now, David Axelrod’s adage that you’re never as smart as you look when you win and you’re never as dumb as you look when you lose is applicable to the Clinton camp. But given the expectations and the results, launching a shop offering a Clinton-style campaign likely won’t be a 2017 trend.
Partisan Tech Battle 2.0
The above-mentioned data breach at NGP VAN was the biggest PR opening that non-partisan tech vendors had in years. During the primaries, the non-partisans picked up some long-shot challengers, who made headlines for their youth and their performances against established officeholders. While the partisans still have a lock on budgets and big-name candidates, proponents of party agnostic technology have their sights on a post-election shift in the political tech industry that could help their sector grow.
Increasingly optimistic that a move away from the all-in-one partisan firm (long the industry standard for Democrats) is on the horizon within the next couple of cycles, non-partisan consultants have begun jockeying for position.
A restructuring of the national market is what companies like Aristotle and NationBuilder are banking on. But that may have been easier had Clinton won. Her campaign incorporated non-political tech into their vendor ranks. Whether subsequent Democrats will be as willing to do the same will be closely watched coming out of 2016.
The Fed Enforcement Clamp Down
The industry will have to wait until April 2017 to see the sentencing of Ravneet “Ravi” Singh, but his conviction was a gauntlet thrown down by the feds. The message: if you're playing fast and loose with federal campaign finance law, we'll see it.
Singh’s conviction on four counts of conspiracy, aiding and abetting campaign donations by a foreign national and two counts of obstruction of justice relating to failing to report those contributions stemmed from his work on the 2012 mayoral campaigns of former Rep. Bob Filner (D) and District Attorney Bonnie Dumanis (R). On the conspiracy count alone, Singh faces a maximum penalty of five years in prison, three years of supervised release, $250,000 fine and a $100 special assessment, according to the Justice Department.
Given the jail sentences handed down in another federal political corruption case involving Pennsylvania Rep. Chaka Fattah in 2016, it seems likely Singh will get jail time when he faces sentencing next spring.