Vulnerable Dems betting Obama can inspire 2008-level turnout

President Obama inspired a dramatic increase in voter turnout in the battleground state of Virginia in 2008 and some Democrats are banking on a repeat performance next year. It’s a turnout dynamic that should allow Democrats to remain on offense in the quest to take back control of the House, according to party operatives.
Take Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly (D), who’s facing another cycle in GOP crosshairs and counting on Obama to help him retain his northern Virginia congressional seat.
In the 2010 cycle, Republican challengers ousted three House Democrats in Virginia, with Connolly hanging on by the slimmest of margins. Heading into 2012, Connolly is listed as one of the party’s 15 most endangered incumbents by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. But the former chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors is shrugging off his party’s concerns and predicting a major Democratic turnout boost thanks to Obama’s bid for a second term.
Turnout in the 11th district in 2012 “will double,” says Connolly. “The president being on the ticket will help me in my district. He will help drive that turnout.”
Turnout in Virginia was 74.5 percent in 2008 — an increase of some 500,000 voters from 2004 when then-President Bush carried the district by 1 point.
The 11th district, which is one of the wealthiest and most educated in the country, out performed that state average, helping Connolly win his first term that year by 12 points.
Two years later, turnout dropped dramatically when Connolly again faced businessman Keith Fimian (R). Overall voter turnout fell to 46 percent, according to the state Board of Elections. Connolly’s margin of victory also shrank to fewer than 1,000 votes.
Next fall, the Virginia Democrat could also be helped by a competitive Republican primary. The National Republican Congressional Committee had twice supported Fimian’s candidacy, in part, because he was able to self-fund. But Fimian has been taciturn about a third bid. He said recently he was basing his decision on redistricting.
“If it redistricts well, which I never thought it would, I will run again,” Fimian told Roll Call. “But I’m not going to run in an uncompetitive seat.”
Meanwhile, two candidates have already entered the fray.
Traffic engineer Ken Vaughn and security consultant Chris Perkins are both vying for the GOP nod. Perkins said he expects the new boundaries will add Democratic voters but that new blood can cultivate a stronger base of support against Connolly.
“Keith is a great American. I wish he had won, but he did not,” Perkins said. “There’s a lot of theories as to why he didn’t get it into the end zone. My personal one that I subscribe to is that he did not touch the disenfranchised group of undecideds and maybe some disenfranchised Democrats.”
Perkins, a retired Army colonel, said his military background could also help him perform better than Fimian. “A former military office has not run there in a while,” he said. “Old soldiers don’t make the best politicians, we do make pretty good leaders.”
Perkins also discounted the president’s ability to buttress Connolly.
“I think the president’s got some problems ahead of him next year and I think that’s going to [make] a difference,” he said.
Obama beat Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in the 11th by 15 points in 2008, but observers believe he’ll have trouble reproducing that margin next year.
For his part, Connolly isn’t losing any sleep over his potential challengers.
“I’ve never lost an election,” he said, flashing a grin. “I’ve won eight in a row in northern Virginia, [2010] was my only close one. I’ve never won an election by less than 10 [points] before and I don’t intend to again.”