Taking note of the constant back-and-forth between conservative leaders, the DNC has launched an ad titled “Survivor: GOP.” But some Republicans are surviving just fine. New poll results show the party is competive in East Coast states—for example, Delaware, where Rep. Mike Castle is polling ahead of Beau Biden, and Pennsylvania, where former Gov. Tom Ridge is polling ahead of Arlen Specter. There are more states, too, since recruiting has been going well. And it’s not just the Senate: New York Gov. David Paterson is in the tanks; even Team Obama is worried about Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman as a potential 2012 candidate, though he’ll have to prove his ability to win primaries first. But before we dole out too much praise, let’s look at the remaining troubles. Kentucky’s internal GOP politics just sound like a mess, and at the RNC, Michael Steele has ceded some of his financial control to rivals. In New Jersey, where GOP hope to knock off unpopular incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine, a Democratic strategy has appeared (though run by the DGA and Democratic donors, not by Corzine): get Republican moderate Chris Christie knocked out in the primaries. Backing up to Arlen Specter for a minute, his deal to retain Senate seniority has now fallen through. That was just one thing rankling his new Democratic colleagues. Another: his statement that Norm Coleman should win in Minnesota. He’s now backing away from that. In Virginia, Terry McAuliffe leads again in Democratic primary polling, prompting Brian Moran to release his own internal poll as a rebuttal. Which opens the question: how do you decie which polls to trust? Finally, your dose of science for the day: A new study shows children can do a good job of predicting who will win an election just by looking at the candidates. So if you really want to win, hire a style consultant.