With the rapidly changing electoral landscape of the past few months, pundits have rightfully focused on the critical role of voters of color as swing voters who will determine the outcome of the 2024 election.
The vast majority of that attention has been focused on Black voters and Latino voters – both critical groups that Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are aggressively courting.
Still, Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) voters have received comparatively little attention from national media and pundits, although that’s not to say they’ve been totally ignored this cycle.
In fact, both presidential campaigns are making personal appeals to AAPI voters. The Harris campaign has an active AAPI outreach program, and has released a number of ads specifically aimed at AAPI voters. Meanwhile, Republicans saw some gains in 2022 with AAPI voters and Trump and Republicans have been increasing outreach efforts to the community in 2024.
They’re certainly worthy of that attention: AAPI voters are the quintessential swing voter – a diverse electorate that is less tied to political parties and looking for candidates who align with their issue priorities.
In 2024, AAPI voters have the power to shape the outcome of the presidential election and control of both chambers of Congress. AAPI voters are uniquely concentrated in critical presidential swing states such as Georgia, Pennsylvania and Nevada.
These three battleground states – which were decided by a combined total of 125,930 votes in 2020 – are home to 928,000 AAPI voters in 2024. In Georgia alone, the number of AAPI voters is 28 times the size of the 2020 vote margin. In Nevada, the AAPI population has grown by 45 percent in the past decade – the fastest AAPI population growth in the country – and they now represent nearly 12 percent of the electorate.
And it’s not just in the presidential race: AAPI voters are uniquely clustered in key Senate battlegrounds such as Nevada, Maryland and Arizona. And in the tight battle for the House of Representatives, many of the districts with the highest Asian-American population – especially in California, New York, New Jersey and Nevada – will make the difference in which party gets the speaker’s gavel.
For example, 38 percent of voters are Asian-Americans in California’s 45th District, which is one of the most competitive toss-up races in the country. The high concentration of the Asian-American population in swing districts means that AAPI voters will play a determinative role this November – and candidates must reach them with the right messaging.
Asian voters have proven time and time again that they’re a key swing vote and pay attention to how candidates will best address the issues they care most about. It’s why they came out in droves for Biden in 2020, when they felt he was the best candidate to handle the COVID-19 pandemic, which was their number one issue. But it’s also why in 2022, safety-conscious Asian voters in Sunset Park, Brooklyn, voted for the Republican nominee for governor of New York.
Candidates up and down the ballot need to be talking to AAPI voters about how they have delivered – and will deliver – on the issues that matter most to them. This year, our polling shows that key top AAPI issues of concern are: economy/cost of living, public safety, and abortion rights.
Asian-American voters are overwhelmingly concerned with the economy—how to keep their businesses alive, how to pay their rent, how to put food on their table, how to pay for growing health care costs. According to AAPI Data’s 2024 Asian American Voter Survey, 86 percent of voters surveyed said jobs and the economy are important issues to them while 85 percent were concerned with inflation, and 78 percent were concerned about housing costs.
The same survey found that about 80 percent of AAPI voters cared about crime and public safety, and that more than 68 percent of Asian American voters worry about hate crimes, harassment and discrimination. This concern has increased in the AAPI community in the wake of racism around the COVID-19 outbreak.
To win AAPI swing votes, candidates must present clear plans to address cost of living, and they must tackle crime head-on. While some Democrats have been reticent to talk about crime, our polling has shown that candidates win when they can proactively advocate for a smart approach to crime that shows they’re serious about safety and about breaking the cycle of crime. That message is especially resonant in AAPI communities, which have experienced higher impact of crime.
On the economy, candidates must lay out specific plans to grow small businesses and to lower costs on household items. Vice President Harris’ plans to lower startup costs for small businesses by up to $50,000 and to build 3 million new affordable homes speak directly to the top priorities that we’ve consistently heard from AAPI voters.
For AAPI voters, the issue of abortion is seen as multi-faceted and often ranks as a top healthcare and autonomy issue, driven by concerns about personal choice, reproductive rights, and access to care. Many women view access to abortion as essential to gender equality, healthcare access, and financial stability. Meanwhile, AAPI men are more likely to see abortion through broader lenses of healthcare policy, community values, and the rights of families to make private healthcare decisions without government interference.
Harris and other Democrats in battleground districts need to be connecting with AAPI voters to drive them out to the polls on election day. An easy way to do that is meeting them where they are at with messages and policy roadmaps that give them reassurance for how candidates’ will make working and living in their communities safer and more cost-friendly.
There are 15 million Asian Americans who will likely be eligible to vote in this year’s election, which is 15 percent more than in 2020, according to Pew Research. The growing AAPI electorate will likely make the difference next month – now it’s on candidates to speak directly to them in their closing appeals.
Roshni Nedungadi is chief research officer & founding partner at HIT Strategies.
