For the first time since the contentious 2004 and 2008 presidential cycles, both of which took place amid the Iraq War, foreign policy has surged to the forefront of the current U.S. presidential race.
Public opinion polling from the beginning of the year demonstrates that voters are prioritizing the importance of foreign policy issues in a way the country’s voters haven’t for over a decade.
But unlike past moments of international crisis, such as the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Iran hostage crisis, or the 9/11 terrorist attacks, which served to unify American public sentiment, and dramatically improve presidential approval ratings, the current global events appear to be doing just the opposite. In fact, foreign policy issues are significantly undermining President Biden’s standing in some polls. For instance, only 38 percent of American voters approve of President Joe Biden’s handling of foreign policy, according to the Gallup Poll.
Now, three major foreign policy issues are shaping public opinion: the aftermath of the Hamas October 7th terrorist attacks on Israel, Russia’s war with Ukraine, and Venezuela’s incursion into Guyana to seize oil reserves.
While the voting public may not be well stepped in their understanding of foreign policy issues, these contemporary foreign policy conflicts are contributing to a sense of unease and suggesting to voters that things aren’t headed in the right direction.
The Hamas Terrorist Attacks On Israel
The brutal Hamas terrorist attack on Israel on October 7th is forcing voters across the United States to confront the reality of who Hamas is (answer: a terrorist organization), as well as the startling rise of antisemitism around the country and across the globe.
The conflict has brought non-political Jewish leaders into electoral politics, including Elisha Wiesel, the son of Holocaust survivor and author of Night, Elie Wiesel, into the political fray. Wiesel is starring in an ad against Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) for denying verifiable facts about the October terrorist attacks.
The impact of the Hamas terrorism this election cycle isn’t only destabilizing the region, but also testing U.S. diplomatic resolve and its commitments to allies. Politically, the conflict thus far is serving to undermine Joe Biden with just 1 in 3 voters surveyed by Harvard and Harris supportive of Biden’s handling of the situation in the Middle East.
Russian Aggression in Ukraine
When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, it was the largest attack on a European country since World War Two.
While President Biden’s train trip through the night into Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, was heroic, the Administration’s position of providing significant military aid and economic sanctions against Russia, has been a point of political contention.
Critics have argued that the Biden response is either too aggressive, risking further escalation, or too timid, undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty and U.S.’s credibility on the global stage.
Opinion is evenly divided, according to Gallup, with 36 percent saying the U.S. should do more to help Ukraine and the very same number saying the U.S. is doing too much to help Ukraine. Threading the needle on this issue will be difficult for many campaigns.
Venezuela’s Incursion into Guyana
A less covered, but equally significant foreign policy issue facing America is Venezuela’s aggressive incursion into oil-rich Guyana, and the growth of Chinese interests there — both of which have come at the direct expense of the national security of the United States.
There are fears among many who follow geopolitics that there could be an even wider regional conflicts coming due to Venezuelan efforts to seed misinformation, disinformation, and other propaganda into the Guyanese media ecosystem, ahead of the 2025 Presidential elections in order to attempt to destabilize the country.
Some are even speculating that Venezuela may even be preparing for war, a conflict that would certainly draw U.S. support for Guyana. That said, while America would likely intervene if Guyana were invaded or attacked, it’d almost certainly create another foreign policy headache for Biden.
Because of their enormously important strategic position and natural resources, any additional instability within Guyana could well disrupt the global oil markets and even challenge the United States’ influence in Latin America. The Biden Administration’s handling of this crisis will be tested as it navigates international law, regional stability, and the geopolitical chessboard of Latin American politics.
Political Ramifications at Home
We believe that voters are telling us in no uncertain terms when we poll them that the issues the country faces today are fundamentally different than the recent past.
Unlike the “rally around the flag” effect typically seen in past foreign policy crises, the current situation appears to be fragmenting U.S. domestic politics further. Biden’s strategies and decisions are under intense scrutiny.
His detractors argue that the current foreign policy challenges highlight a perceived ineptitude or lack of strategic foresight. Biden allies counter that his multi-year tenure on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and eight years serving as VP has prepared him extensively for properly handling the complexity of today’s global geopolitics in an age of intense unrest and disruption – and his leadership is bearing the fruits of that prior labor.
As November approaches, it’s becoming increasingly clear that foreign policy isn’t just a peripheral issue, but a central theme that could decide the next occupant of the White House.
Voters aren’t only evaluating domestic policies, but also the capacity of a leader to navigate and shape international affairs amidst a turbulent global landscape. This shift marks a significant moment in American politics, where the impact of international events on domestic electoral outcomes cannot be underestimated.
Bradley Honan and Elisabeth Zeche are partners at the Democratic polling and data analytics firm Honan Strategy Group. Honan is also Co-President of the New York Metro Chapter of the American Association of Political Consultants and serves on the Board of Directors of the Public Relations Society of America’s New York Chapter.
