Trump’s Approval Rating: The Key Metric Driving Politics, Business, and Global Strategy
Businesses, candidates, and countries are tracking President Trump’s job approval rating to inform their engagement strategies with the new administration. Make no mistake, presidential job approval may seem like a relatively mundane data point in a world awash in information, but the status and trajectory of it will guide how Congress, CEOs, trade associations, 2026 candidates, and world leaders interact with the White House.
Strong job approval secures presidents more support in Congress, friendlier relations with business executives, and more negotiating strength with world leaders. Lower job approval melts these advantages away like a snowball in the sun.
Let’s begin with the basic facts. Trump’s current job approval rating is lower than most modern presidents, more polarized, but also marginally stronger than Trump 1.0 shortly after inauguration. Trump 2.0 rhymes with Trump 1.0, but it’s different.
According to Gallup tracking data, Presidents Kennedy, Eisenhower, Obama and Carter began their time in office with job approvals ranging from 72 to 66%. With the exception of Obama, these job approval ratings were from the post-war, broadcast era in which presidents often received a “honeymoon” reprieve from the press and public.
Trump Term 1 and Trump Term 2 job approval are much lower than those presidents and have much higher job disapproval scores. As of Jan. 29th, Trump’s job approval in RCP is an average of 49.8 approve – 44.8% disapprove. For comparison, President Biden’s post-inaugural job approval was 57% approve – 37% disapprove.
Moreover, Gallup tracking data finds that President Trump’s early job disapproval, in the 43-44% range, is much higher than historical norms. For example, President Reagan took office in 1981 with only 51% job approval in Gallup tracking, but his disapproval was only 13%. Likewise, George W. Bush’s initial job approval in 2001 was 57%, but he had only 25% disapproval. Bill Clinton’s 1993 post-inaugural job approval was very similar to Bush’s – 58% approve – 20% disapprove. Trump is an outlier when compared to past presidents and has baked-in negatives unique to him. This presents a political challenge to Republicans and an opening to Democrats.
But Trump’s job approval in Term 2 is somewhat stronger than the Gallup data when we look at all available polling. For example, the RCP polling average for Trump job approval as of January 29 is 49.8% approve and 44.8% disapprove. 538 has a similar average of 49.4% approve and 43.2% disapprove. Trump’s job approval is just below 50% with very high disapprove numbers.
Importantly, President Trump’s job approval does appear to be stronger than it was at this time in 2017, when it was around 45%. For example, Trump began office in 2017 with a job approval score of 45.5% approve and 41.3% disapprove. This flipped and turned negative by Feb. 3, 2017. The President appears to have 4-5% higher job approval to begin Term 2. When Republican strategists say that Trump’s numbers are better this time, they mean that they are better than 2017, when the transition was visibly shaky.
What do we make of this?
There are three factors to consider: (1) a stronger Trump start in Term 2, (2) the natural decline of presidential job approval (with two notable exceptions), and (3) polarization ensuring limited upside or downside movement.
First, it appears that while historically lower and more polarized, Trump’s job approval scores are marginally better in Term 2. This means he begins office on stronger footing than he did in 2017. Republicans also point to the Rasmussen polling with 52% approve and 45% disapprove, discounting some of the historically more Democratic friendly pollsters, like Quinnipiac. The polling and a less chaotic transition give them optimism.
Second, most presidents experience job approval declines as their administration grinds forward and the honeymoon fades. Absent a shock to the system, like a 9/11 “rally effect,” or a very strong economy, presidents watch their job approval and political clout fade over time. We can assume that this generally holds true for President Trump in his new term. He will need a strong economy or an exogenous shock to push his job approval higher. President Clinton had both in the Oklahoma City bombing and a surging economy. Similarly, President Reagan survived an assassination attempt and also experienced an economic boom.
Democratic strategists will look at the President’s job approval and likely conclude that without a strong economy or some other event, his job approval rating will naturally decline and that job disapprovers will propel a blue wave in the midterm elections of 2026. This is entirely rational, consistent with America’s political history, and the normal pattern for most midterm elections.
The third factor is that the president appears to have both a hard approval ceiling and a hard approval floor. In other words, strong opposition from Democrats ensures a ceiling on his support. It is difficult to imagine the president with approval above 54-55%. Conversely, the president’s ardent MAGA support provides him a solid approval floor, likely around 43%.
Political strategists also know this and will assume that a wiser Trump 2.0 won’t be as fragile and will have the benefit of an immovable base of MAGA support. For Republicans this virtually ensures a base turnout campaign in the midterms, and Republican strategists operating from an assumption that Trump’s job approval floor will mute a Democratic wave.
Putting all this together, the trajectory of the economy appears to be decisive. A stronger economy would boost the president’s job approval and act against the traditional job approval declines that most presidents experience. Republican strategists will hope that a friendlier regulatory environment and greater energy production can power up the economy and the president’s job approval ratings. Democratic strategists will bet on the traditional job approval slide and economic drag from tariffs and counter-tariffs. Time will tell.
Unfavorable media coverage is unlikely to move the needle. Candidate Trump experienced extremely negative coverage from virtually all of the traditional media and still prevailed. Americans have absorbed eight years of intense Trump media coverage and three national elections. After all of this, it’s unlikely that traditional media coverage will materially impact the president’s job approval. In fact, it’s worth noting that Trump has increased his vote support in each election, despite unfavorable coverage – 62.9 million in 2016, 74.2 million in 2020, and 77.3 million in 2024.
Potential 2026 Democratic candidates will be watching the president’s job approval closely. They’ll want a few more months of data before making a hard decision. If the president’s job approval begins softening, they’ll conclude that 2026 will be a favorable environment for them. After all, Democratic voters are now high propensity voters, which generally favors them in midterm elections. Higher Trump disapproval and higher vote propensity could be the Democrats’ ticket back to power in 2026. The converse is true for Republicans eying a 2026 campaign. If perceptions of the economy and the President’s job approval stay flat or improve, they will be more likely to throw their hat into the ring.
The calculus in the C-Suite will be similar. Business leaders are working with the President now because (1) Republicans have the trifecta (WH, Senate and House), (2) Trump’s 2024 win was stronger than 2016, and (3) now is the time to engage with the new Washington power structure and work for the most favorable policy outcome. If the president’s job approval declines significantly, business will still advocate for their interests, but CEOs will be less interested in White House photo opps.
The next few months will be decisive. Political and business actors will wait, watch the data, and begin drawing conclusions between Opening Day and the Kentucky Derby.
Robert Moran is a management consult, public opinion expert, and Partner at the Brunswick Group
