The consensus view on this election has formed and it’s going to feel like President Biden is losing the entire way.
Even if early ballot returns and swing state polling starts to run contrary to consensus, Democrats are going to be in a doom loop for the duration. For any Democratic campaign, that creates a dual challenge of acknowledging the narrative to seem “in touch with reality” but not letting it govern your own thinking — because when conventional wisdom becomes this widely held, it’s often wrong.
This isn’t a prediction that Biden will win, nor does a consensus view have to be wrong just because it’s so widely held. But this moment is likely the absolute peak of Donald Trump’s political strength and it’s often the case that a perceived advantage lasts longer than an actual one.
Having such widespread and high levels of confidence leads to complacency from campaigns and to discounting important information from the observers (press/donors/IEs/pundits) that contradicts consensus. That’s why we’re so often surprised by events that seem obvious in hindsight.
The mere existence of today’s political atmosphere isn’t a self-fulfilling prophecy, Biden has some serious work to do. And if the election were held today he’d likely lose. But it’s exceedingly rare that the consensus view on anything is exactly correct. It’s much more common that the consensus view is severely over or under rating the perceived strength of any candidate. And, right now, Trump looks exceedingly overrated.
If Biden starts turning this campaign around the facts will change a lot quicker than the conventional wisdom will. Consensus opinion has already swung a lot further than the data has, so if the data starts to swing back consensus won’t likely catch up before Election Day.
Since the debate Biden has lost two percentage points to Trump in 538’s national polling average. For an electorate that has been basically frozen since 2016 that’s indeed a lot of movement, but it’s still only two points.
The consensus view, meanwhile, on this election has moved a lot more. Many Democrats have publicly declared we’re headed for a wipeout if Biden remains on the ticket and the betting odds for Biden have spiked out of proportion with the movement in polling averages.
It may prove true that Biden never recovers what he lost on June 27th, and that Trump is headed toward a coronation in November. But the history of presidential elections says it would be extremely unusual for there to be one sharp movement in polling in July that never recedes. In fact, there were four separate movements in the 538’s national average of two points or more between June 27th and Election Day in 2020.
If the past is prologue this thing is far from over. But the view around Biden has shifted so far since the debate that blanket Biden supporters are going to be viewed as delusional no matter how close this election actually materializes to be.
As a result, all Democratic campaigns are going to need to play a public and private game. Publicly, campaigns and party organizations are going to need to acknowledge the consensus view around Biden and promote their strategy to outperform in order to keep donors and supporters onside.
But privately, all of those same folks shouldn’t let the consensus view disproportionately discourage them from making choices they would have before June 27th. Continue to play offense, don’t shrink the map and run to win. If we come to the belief that this year no longer offers opportunities to play offense because of where Biden stands today, that’s much more likely to prove a self-fulling prophecy than that Trump is now an unstoppable force.
Andy Barr is a managing director at Uplift Campaigns, a Democratic media, ad buying and technology firm.
