In the final part of our 2024 Election Briefing Series, C&E spoke to political strategists Nadia Garnett, a partner at the Democratic firm Deliver Strategies, and Rick Wiley, a Republican strategist and a former senior advisor to Nikki Haley for President. Garnett was also previously the African American vote director on Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign, and Wiley was formerly political director at the Republican National Committee and senior advisor to the NRSC
We asked them both to evaluate the state of play at the top of the ticket as the presidential campaigns shift into GOTV mode, and what down-ballot campaigns need to do to stay focused on mobilizing voters between now and Election Day.
“I feel like you can see it from the excitement of the top of our ticket,” said Garnett. “Look at what the energy levels look like at the Harris-Walz rallies and how the messaging from those events is carried down to the number of people who’ve actually requested ballots and the number of people that you’re seeing already at early vote events in some of these locations.”
For Democrats between now and November 5, emphasized Garnett, it’s about continuing to demonstrate they can “chew gum and walk at the same time.” Yes, there’s still persuasion messaging that’s necessary at this stage given the late cycle switch as the Harris campaign and national Democrats work to communicate the candidate’s vision and issue positions, but “we’re able to go and have multilevel conversations,” said Garnett.
“People are getting some of the same messaging in different places, whether it’s on the doors, it’s on television, it’s in the mailboxes or it’s at the events themselves,” she said. “And I think we’re actually doing a good job of talking persuasion and moving towards turnout as well.”
One of the challenges this time of year, noted Rick Wiley, is getting a solid grasp on what’s actually happening on the ground day-to-day given that campaigns at the top of the ballot will hold the data and the metrics fairly close to the vest and of course engage in a generous amount of spin. So even accounting for the enthusiasm component, it’s never easy to assess whether one side or the other has a clear advantage on the ground.
Money is certainly one advantage national Democrats can boast at this point in the cycle, but a new dynamic that’s significant this year is that the campaigns can now coordinate canvassing operations with Super PACs. That stems from an FEC ruling earlier this year that determined canvassing was exempt from coordination rules.
“Now you’ve got this added layer where you might have four Super PACs in Wisconsin alone,” said Wiley. “You’ve got at least two on the ground on the Republican side working and a few on the Democratic side. So there’s a lot of chaos on the ground, but there are a lot of doors being knocked, which is good. It’s just a matter of whether the data gets back and is it going where it needs to go?”
For campaigns down the ballot, there’s getting the basics right like the importance of properly tracking data from early voting and vote-by-mail to “balance it up against the turnout universe so you can see how your operation is performing.” But then there’s the strategic component of being responsive to that data and adapting or adjusting your messaging where and when it’s needed.
The messaging coming from the top of the ticket on the GOP side when it comes to early vote and vote-by-mail is a challenge for Republicans, acknowledged Wiley. He stressed the need for Republicans to use everything at their disposal to bank votes, especially in down-ballot races that could be decided by much smaller universes of voters.
“It’s becoming a problem. You have to use all of the tools available to you to turn out voters,” Wiley said. “We take some of that off the field.”
In a year like 2024 where there’s so much distraction at the top of the ballot, it can be easy for down-ballot campaigns to get caught up in some of that noise, warned Garnett. But her advice to those working on the ground at the congressional level and below: Put the blinders on and focus like a laser on your race.
“I tell people, your field plan is a living, breathing plan,” said Garnett. “Make sure you’re checking your data. Make sure that you’re pulling folks off your list every day who you know are turning their ballots back in. And make sure you’re keeping your volunteers and your paid canvassers motivated.”
