For Interactive Polling, the Future is Now

For anyone wondering how rapidly cell phone users are changing the polling landscape, look no further than a recent study from the federal government, which shows that for the first time ever the number of cell phone-only households has surpassed those with just traditional landlines.
That has all sorts of ramifications for the economy and the lifestyles of Americans. But, for me, it’s another reason why interactive polling is and will continue to be the most effective method of measuring public and voter opinion.
At Zogby International, we don’t include cell phones in our samples. Surveying cell phone users presents legal and logistical obstacles that make it impractical. Instead, we rely on an interactive online methodology that we have used along with traditional phone polling.
Internet penetration in the U.S. is high and growing. Studies show that for the general population it’s 83 percent—90 percent for likely voters. This, combined with the fact that an increasing number of younger respondents do not own landlines, suggests the Internet is becoming the most viable means of reaching key demographic groups. And as we continue to refine our interactive polling, we have experienced increased accuracy and reliability.
A 2006 Zogby Interactive survey correctly identified the winner in 17 of 18 U.S. Senate races. It was the first time online methodology was used in state races, with polling conducted over a one-week period. In 2008, we did a great deal of interactive polling on the presidential race. The results were very close to telephone polling done at the same time. On Oct. 4, our interactive poll gave Barack Obama a 48 to 44 percent lead over John McCain, which was within the margin of error of several telephone polls taken at the same time. Those numbers were in sync with a Time magazine survey that had Obama leading McCain 48 to 43 percent; ARG had Obama ahead, 49 to 45; Rasmussen had Obama up 51 to 45; and our Zogby phone poll showed Obama leading 48 to 43.
Still, skeptics of online polling remain. Much of the doubt is based on false assumptions about our methodology. So here is how Zogby International ensures random sampling and reliable results for interactive polling:
Our samples are randomly drawn from a pool of several hundred thousand potential respondents. Zogby survey respondents do not “opt–in” to participate in polls, they are invited—much like telephone poll respondents are invited to take a survey. A random probability sample of our representative panel receives email invitations to participate, with a link taking them to the survey on Zogby’s secure servers. Respondents never know when they are going to get an invitation to take part in a survey, and they never know what the subject matter is going to be until they click on the invitation link.
We take many security measures to guarantee accuracy. The link inside the Zogby interactive poll invitation expires after one use. We randomly double-check the veracity of individual responses to all online surveys by contacting 2 percent of each respondent pool via telephone to go back through the survey. When needed, interactive polling is supplemented by telephone polling to guarantee a full and proper representation of all demographic groups.
Several other measures are also taken with each interactive poll to guarantee that no respondent or group of respondents is able to covertly distort the results of a Zogby interactive survey. These measures have helped us win tremendous acceptance of interactive polling within the business and marketing worlds.
While there remains reluctance in the political world, some of the top players in the field who I have spoken to realize that the days of phone polling are numbered, and that interactive polling will replace it. So for now, Zogby International will continue to educate critics and lead the way forward in interactive. John Zogby is president and CEO of the polling firm Zogby International. You can post comments on political topics in the Zogby Forums at Zogby.com.