How a Voter-Driven Approach to Campaigns is Reshaping Politics
Last year, as Donald Trump sought to return to the White House, his campaign went on the hunt for new voters; Americans who, with just the right message and targeting, could be convinced to throw their support behind the former president.
That strategy – which ultimately paid off for Trump – is emblematic of what longtime pollster Michael D. Cohen argues in a new book set to publish next month is a new era for political campaigns. Party bosses no longer dictate the “marketplace and ideas and candidates,” he writes. Nor do the candidates themselves.
“We are now in the third wave, a new permanent campaign,” Cohen, who is now a lecturer at Johns Hopkins University, writes in his second edition of Modern Political Campaigns: How Professionalism, Technology, and Speed Have Revolutionized Elections. “Our pro-style, tech-infused, always-on society now has the campaigns that best reflect our times. This is a revolution of politics putting us back at the center of elections, a small-d democratic shift that has wide-ranging consequences.”
A ‘Big Win’ for Political Campaigns
Those consequences are vast, according to Cohen. On one hand, he told C&E, campaigns “are shifting to an increasingly voter-driven approach,” using new technology, media and data tools to connect with voters. Voters, in turn, get the campaigns and candidates they want, rather than having to settle for someone whom they might see as the lesser of two evils.
It’s a “big win” for political campaign professionals, Cohen said. Campaigns have the power to reach more voters than ever – and much more cheaply. Persuasion becomes more affordable, meaning even downballot campaigns can be bigger and more impactful, according to Cohen.
What’s more, the emergence of new technology – including generative AI – makes it easier than ever to keep up a permanent campaign between elections.
“With this cycle’s investments in generative AI, grassroots and grasstops campaigns have become even more effective,” Cohen writes. “Modern political campaigns never end; they just continue in the policy arena in between elections.”
‘No Going Back’
On the other hand, he argues, politicians no longer lead their voters, but resemble them, exacerbating divisions in an already fragmented political landscape.
“Not enough work is being done on the persuasion side of campaigns, and I am bothered by the notion that because it is difficult, it is not worth the time or money,” Cohen writes. “Voters are now mobilized, but not led. Both parties have become so good that we now have campaigns fought on the margins, at a higher intensity because there are fewer competitive races. Leaders represent, but do not bring us together. There is no going back to a time when campaigns were less professional, when technology was less a part of our lives, and when speed was less valued in favor of patient, collegial deliberation.”
In other words, Cohen told C&E, with the rise of the voter-driven campaign, politicians are going to be more beholden than ever to their specific voters and avoid making the kind of consequential decisions that are necessary, but may be unpopular.
“Take Ukraine, for example,” Cohen said. “Foreign aid is never going to be popular. And you’re seeing resistance to that. But it’s really important to be active in the world. We really need allies. But the closer you get to people, the closer you get to being a representative and not someone who’s a leader.”
Cohen’s book, Modern Political Campaigns: How Professionalism, Technology, and Speed Have Revolutionized Elections, Second Edition, is due out on April 15.
