Three Takeaways From the AAPC’s 2024 Election Analysis

Democrats suffered in 2024 from underwhelming turnout among some of their most crucial voting blocs, according to a new analysis of election data from the American Association of Political Consultants.

The analysis of voter registration and turnout data in four key states – Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania – found that, in most cases, turnout as a percentage of voter registration lagged 2020 levels. Meanwhile, a growing number of voters chose to register as unaffiliated. 

Here are three takeaways from the 2024 election data analysis: 

Unaffiliated Voters Increased in Number

The share of unaffiliated voters increased across the board in 2024, according to the AAPC’s analysis. And it appears that Democrats suffered the most as a result.

In all four states, voters registering without declaring a party affiliation grew in numbers, with Pennsylvania and North Carolina seeing the largest increase. Meanwhile, Democrats saw a net loss in voter registrations in each state. Republicans, on the other hand, grew their margins in Arizona and Pennsylvania, while suffering fewer registration losses than Democrats in North Carolina and Nevada. 

The increase in unaffiliated voters was driven in no small part by electorates that Democrats have long relied on. The number of Black and Hispanic voters who registered as unaffiliated grew across all four states included in the analysis, while the number of registered Democrats shrank. 

Republicans were also able to grow their numbers among Black and Hispanic voters in each case, according to the analysis.

Biden Voters Stayed Home

While Democrats’ lost ground among Black and Hispanic voters in 2024, the AAPC’s analysis found that it wasn’t necessarily because those voters changed their minds on President Donald Trump. They simply didn’t vote. 

Turnout as a percentage of voter registration declined in three out of the four states analysed, with Pennsylvania being the one exception. But in most cases, Democrats saw a larger decline than Republicans did. Only in Pennsylvania did Democrats have a higher turnout percentage than Republicans – but not by much. 

Black and Hispanic voters also stayed home at higher rates than in 2020. Similar to the analysis of the overall electorate, Pennsylvania was the one exception. But Hispanic Republicans outpaced Democrats in turnout in the Keystone State – a small, yet meaningful, change from past cycles.

Long-term Organizing Paid Off for the GOP

The key driving force behind the voter registration and turnout shifts in 2024 were the result of a years-long effort by the GOP to up their numbers in the most crucial battleground states, the AAPC’s analysis found. 

Republicans spent heavily on voter registration operations ahead of the 2024 cycle in an attempt to chip away at Democrats’ longtime ground advantage. And while many of those efforts were fragmented and uneven, they were still “key to Trump’s victory,” the analysis found.

Still, the analysis also placed blame on Democrats, arguing that the party ignored clear warning signs long before Election Day.

“While the Trump campaign and the GOP should be given significant credit for their registration efforts, the results of the Presidential election should also be laid at the feet of the Democrats and the Biden/Harris campaign, who saw the GOP registration efforts happening in real time years before the first ballot was cast and failed to respond,” the analysis reads.