What Went Wrong for Harris in 2024? A New Report Has Answers

Former Vice President Kamala Harris fell short among key voters that helped power former President Joe Biden’s victory in 2020, while failing to turn out the new and infrequent voters that Democrats have long relied on, according to an extensive new report on the 2024 electorate.

The “What Happened” report from the Democratic data firm Catalist presents a sobering reality for the party: historically Democratic-leaning voter blocs, like young people and Latinos, failed to back Harris at the same levels that they supported Democrats in past elections. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump managed to increase or maintain his levels of support across nearly every demographic group.

Here’s a look at some of Catalist’s findings:

Young Voters Swung Right

Democrats have long relied on robust support from young voters to power their victories. But that trend showed signs of faltering in 2024. 

Democrats’ support among voters under the age of 30 plunged from 61 percent in 2020 to 55 percent in 2024, according to Catalist’s analysis. That drop in support was larger than for any other generation or age group. 

The decline in Democratic support among young voters was even more evident among certain racial and ethnic groups. Among young Latinos, Harris performed 12 percentage points worse than Biden did in 2020. Among young Asian American and Pacific Islander voters, Harris’ support clocked in 9 percentage points below 2020 levels.

Democrats’ Support Among Women Remained Steady, But Didn’t Grow

Catalist’s report found that Harris didn’t experience the kind of drop-off among women in 2024 that Democrats saw with other groups of voters. 

Yet despite her distinction as the first woman of color to score a major party’s presidential nod, she failed to outperform Biden among women. Fifty-five percent of women supported Harris in 2024 compared to 56% who backed Biden four years earlier.

What’s more, Harris saw a significant drop-off in support among Latina women, whose support for Democrats fell to 60 percent in 2024 from 67 percent in 2020 and 77 percent in 2016, when Hillary Clinton was on the ballot, according to the report.

Men Swung for Trump at Notable Levels

While Harris’ support among women remained consistent with 2020 levels, she noticeably underperformed among men. Just 42 percent of men backed Harris last year, according to Catalist’s analysis. Biden won 48 percent of those voters in 2020. 

That decline in support spanned every racial and ethnic group included in the analysis. Democratic support among white men fell 4 percentage points from 2020 and 8 percent among Black men. The most significant decline was among Latino men, whose support for Democrats at the top of the ticket plunged 12 points from 2020 levels.

Harris Did Well With ‘Super Voters’

Among voters who cast ballots in all four of the past even-year general elections – so-called “super voters” – Harris’ support remained strong at 50 percent. By comparison, Democrats won just 47 percent of those voters in 2016. 

Harris’ problem, however, was more evident among less frequent voters, the Catalist analysis found. She underperformed Biden’s 2020 numbers among those who have voted in three of the past four even-year general elections by 3 percentage points. Among voters who cast ballots in one or two of the past four general elections, Harris’ support fell 7 percentage points below Biden’s. 

Notably, super voters tend to be older, less racially diverse and more likely to be homeowners. And historically, those voters were more likely to lean Republican. Harris’ stronger support among super voters is in line with a trend that has unfolded over the past several cycles: Democrats are gaining support among more-affluent and engaged voters, while Republicans have seen an uptick in support from irregular voters.

Democrats’ Support Declined Among Urban and Suburban Voters

Despite urban and suburban voters increasing their share of the overall electorate in 2024, Harris’ support among those voters fell short of 2020 levels. 

In 2020, 72 percent of urban voters cast their ballots for Biden. Harris, by comparison, won 67 percent of those voters, the Catalist report found. That drop-off in support was similar among suburban voters; Biden won 54 percent of suburban voters in 2020, while Harris carried just 50 percent. 

In rural areas, which have long leaned Republican, Harris underperformed Biden’s 2020 margin by 3 percentage points, both nationally and in battleground states, the report found.