How We Turned a 14% Chance Into a Congressional Victory

When David Flippo entered Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District Republican primary, prediction markets gave him roughly a 14 percent chance of winning.

I traveled with David his first week in the district, and was in the car when a county GOP chairman called and told David he didn’t know why he was running, because he didn’t have a chance.

The conventional wisdom was clear. Former State Sen. James Settelmeyer was the establishment favorite. He had decades of political relationships, broad institutional support and the backing of an outgoing member of Congress, the governor and every Republican in the legislature.

But campaigns are not won by conventional wisdom. They are won through strategy, execution and an understanding of where voters actually are.

From the first day of the campaign, we recognized that this race would not be won through traditional Republican politics. We invested heavily in polling, voter modeling, coalition building and turnout operations.

Through weekly polling and voter modeling, we identified the voters most likely to support David Flippo. Every decision flowed from that data.

We built a broad coalition of local elected officials, county leaders, grassroots activists, conservative organizations, veterans groups and community leaders across northern Nevada. These endorsements provided credibility and expanded our reach into key communities.

At the national level, we worked aggressively to build support from the America First movement. Turning Point Action, CPAC, Club for Growth, Gun Owners of America, Moms for America, Veterans for America First, Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.), former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio and many others helped validate the campaign and build momentum. That coalition building ultimately helped earn President Donald Trump’s endorsement.

We then executed one of the most aggressive field programs ever in Nevada politics. Using sophisticated voter modeling, we identified high-propensity Flippo supporters and contacted them repeatedly through calls, texts, digital advertising, grassroots outreach and coalition partners.

Every week, polling and voter contact data were fed back into our models. Every week, our targeting became more precise. Rather than talking to everyone, we focused relentlessly on the voters our data showed were most likely to support Flippo and most likely to vote.

The result was extraordinary. Turnout in the 2nd District significantly outperformed the rest of the state, increasing approximately 16 percent more than statewide trends. That increase was driven by our ability to identify, engage and mobilize key voter segments.

Weekly polling was not used as a public relations tool. It was a management tool. Polling informed messaging, spending decisions, coalition-building efforts and turnout priorities. Every major strategic decision was grounded in data.

No campaign succeeds alone. Turning Point Action deserves enormous credit for helping energize and mobilize America First voters. Their grassroots operation and commitment to conservative turnout played a major role in this victory.

Likewise, Trump and his team deserve tremendous thanks. The president’s endorsement was critical, but so was the movement he built. The America-First coalition that powered Flippo’s victory exists because Trump transformed Republican politics and energized voters who previously felt disconnected from the process.

Flippo’s victory was not an upset caused by luck. It was the result of disciplined strategy, sophisticated voter modeling, coalition building, relentless field execution and an unwavering focus on turnout.

A campaign that began with only a 14 percent chance of winning became a case study in how modern Republican campaigns can outperform expectations through data, grassroots energy and execution.

On election night, Flippo achieved victory by a 12.5 percent margin, winning 10 out of 12 counties. 

Rory McShane is the founder of RMC, a Las Vegas-based strategy firm.