Political Ad Spending Expected to Hit Nearly $11 Billion in 2026

Political ad spending is expected to hit an all-time high for a midterm cycle in 2026, according to new projections from the ad tech firm AdImpact. 

The report, released this week, predicts that candidates, campaigns, committees and outside groups will drop a staggering $10.8 billion on advertising during the 2026 election cycle, driven by expectedly robust spending on broadcast television and the continued growth of CTV.

The anticipated surge in ad spending will be seen across the board, from down-ballot races to the marquee House and Senate contests that will ultimately determine which party controls Congress for the final two years of President Donald Trump’s second term in office, AdImpact predicts.

“We anticipate record spending across all race types due to the highly competitive national environment, with congressional spending specifically set to reach new heights,” the report reads.

Here are some key takeaways from AdImpact’s report:

A New Record For Midterm Spending

The 2026 cycle’s projected $10.8 billion advertising price tag would make it the most expensive non-presidential election cycle in history, marking a more-than-20-percent increase over the $8.9 billion spent in 2022, according to AdImpact’s report. 

In fact, the expected ad spending for 2026 looks more like that of a presidential election year. In 2024, $11.2 billion was spent on political advertising, with about $3.2 billion of that targeting the presidential race specifically.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, California – with its massive population and expensive media markets – is expected to see the largest share of political ad spending next year, with AdImpact predicting $1.1 billion in spending in the Golden State. 

But other states aren’t that far off from California. AdImpact’s report projects that nearly $1 billion will be spent on advertising in Michigan, where Democrats are defending an open Senate seat and seeking to hold the governor’s mansion. Meanwhile, states like Texas, Georgia and North Carolina are expected to garner upwards of $550 million in ad spending, according to AdImpact’s report. 

CTV Spending is Growing Quickly

While AdImpact’s projections see broadcast TV accounting for nearly half of all political ad spending in 2026, CTV’s market share is expected to grow twice as fast. 

CTV’s spending share will increase to 23 percent next year – a 2 percent increase over 2024 levels – to nearly $2.5 billion, according to AdImpact. Broadcast television, meanwhile, is projected to increase by just 1 percent, but lose $97 million overall in revenue.

“With $2.5 Billion projected, CTV is now a core marketing strategy for 2026 campaigns, offering advertisers the ability to maximize both efficiency and overall reach,” AdImpact’s Senior Vice President of Data John Link said. 

The growth of CTV is also expected to eat into local cable’s market share, according to the report, which projects spending on local cable dropping from $1.7 billion in 2022 to $1.29 billion in 2026. Radio and satellite spending are expected to hold onto their historic shares of 3 percent and 1 percent, respectively, according to AdImpact’s projections.

Early Spending is Already Setting Records

AdImpact has already logged around $900 million in spending through Aug. 26, according to the report. By comparison, $657 million had already been spent at the same point in 2023, while $572 million had been spent by August 2021.

It’s not just the off-year races that are driving the early surge in ad spending. Early investments in Senate and House contests are far higher than in past off years, AdImpact found, with congressional spending accounting for 18 percent of all political ad activity as of August. At the same point in 2023, congressional ad spending accounted for just 5 percent of political ad spending. 

“While early spending is not always a reliable indicator of how expensive a cycle will ultimately become, 2025 is already setting new records,” the report reads. “This activity has been driven by competitive gubernatorial primaries, earlier House and Senate investment, and aggressive Downballot spending.”

Ad spending on House races is expected to hit $2.2 billion in 2026 – a 27 percent increase over the 2024 election cycle and a 40 percent increase over 2022 levels. Meanwhile, Senate ad spending is projected to slightly outpace 2024 levels, coming in at $2.8 billion, according to the report.

Downballot contests and state legislative races are expected to account for more than a third of total ad spending in 2026. AdImpact is projecting that $3.9 billion will be dropped on these contests.