Political Advertising Could Weigh on Broader Media Market in 2026

A projected surge in midterm ad spending is poised to reshape the broader media ecosystem in 2026, putting new pressures on political and commercial advertisers, according to a new report from the media firm Assembly. 

The report predicts political ad spending to reach $10.1 billion next year, marking a 15 percent increase over the 2022 midterm cycle. As it stands, states like Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina are likely to see the largest surges in spending, according to Assembly’s analysis.

The effects of the expected record-setting ad spend are likely to be felt beyond the politics industry, forcing commercial advertisers to not only vie for inventory, but to adapt to the cultural pressures that come along with a hyper-politicized media marketplace.

“Political media strategists are the original performance marketers: ruthlessly data-driven, hyper-targeted, and under extreme pressure to deliver results,” Tyler Goldberg, the director of political strategy at Assembly, said. “As we head into the 2026 midterms, the ad market will feel the ripple effects of billions in political spend flooding the system, more so than we have in previous years.”

The Assembly analysis is the second such projection in just over a month to conclude that the 2026 midterms are likely to be the most expensive on record. A report released last month by the ad tech firm AdImpact pegged 2026 ad spending at around $10.8 billion – more than 20 percent higher than 2022 levels.

Assembly’s report relies on a proprietary metric, dubbed AMII, to grade how crowded a given media market is expected to be in the upcoming midterm cycle on a scale of 1 to 10. In Georgia, for example, the Atlanta media market is projected to hit an extremely high AMII of 8.88, while other markets in the state are expected to average out to about 8.21. 

Michigan, on the other hand, is projected to see its media markets become increasingly crowded as 2026 progresses, hitting an AMII of 9.17 in the third and fourth quarter of the year. By that same point, Assembly projects North Carolina’s AMII to hit 9. 

That’s enough to put new pressures on all advertisers – not just political creatives – who are preparing for higher costs and scarcer inventory.

“Political advertising puts a unique and significant strain on advertisers in local markets,” the report reads. “Any advertiser that expects to be active in a high-intensity market should be preparing now for higher rates, less inventory, and more preemptions.”

The 2026 midterm cycle isn’t just likely to create financial pressures for advertisers, but also cultural ones. Assembly’s report argues that “the very content of political ads is fundamentally changing the way brands are being perceived.” In other words, political affiliations and ideologies run so deep that they can affect how people behave as consumers, “especially when those preexisting views are reinforced or challenged by a tidal wave of political advertising.”

One example, the report notes, is healthcare. Democrats’ ads in 2026 are likely to focus on the GOP’s handling of Medicaid and federal health insurance subsidies. That, in turn, has the potential to amplify negative perceptions of health care advertisers. 

“Advertisers across all fields need to prepare for a new type of consumer: one who has preexisting political beliefs and has been inundated with political media – all of which will affect their spending habits and outlook,” the report reads.”