Video Ad Spending to Set Record for a Midterm Cycle in 2026
Video advertising is expected to dominate the world of politics during the 2026 midterms, as political advertisers prepare to drop an estimated $11.2 billion on video ads next cycle.
The projected ad spending means that 2026 will look more like a presidential election year than a midterm cycle. Political video advertising cost $11.3 billion in 2024, according to AdImpact and Cross Screen Media, while the 2022 midterms saw $9.8 billion in ad spending.
A new report from Cross Screen Media lays out some of the biggest expected trends in political video advertising for 2026. Here are some key takeaways:
Persuadable Voters Are More Expensive Than Ever
Political advertisers are expected to spend more than ever to reach a shrinking number of persuadable voters in 2026.
According to Cross Screen Media’s report, political advertisers are projected to drop $516 in video ads for every swing voter. The math breaks down like this: Out of the 233 million registered voters in the U.S., only about 117 million are actually likely to vote. That means that about $96 in video ads will be required to reach each of them.
But the universe of persuadable voters is even smaller – about 22 million. To reach those voters, political advertisers will have to pay a high premium, the report argues.
TV is Making a Comeback
Between 2014 and 2020, the share of political advertising on mobile, desktop and social media more than quadrupled, rising from just 6 percent in 2014 to 27 percent in 2020.
Since then, however, TV has reasserted itself.
In 2026, mobile, desktop and social are expected to account for 15 percent of political video spend, according to Cross Screen Media’s report, while TV is projected to rise to 85 percent – its highest share since 2016. The change is due mainly to the explosion of CTV and streaming, which combines the targeting abilities of digital video with the grandeur of traditional TV.
CTV is Driving Political Ad Growth
While spending on local broadcast TV is still expected to dominate political video advertising, connected TV is growing at a much faster clip.
According to estimates from Cross Screen Media and AdImpact, political advertisers are expected to spend about $5.3 billion on local broadcast television during the 2026 cycle, accounting for nearly half of the $11.2 billion in expected video ad spending. That marks a 2 percent increase over 2022 levels.
CTV, meanwhile, is expected to receive about $2.9 billion in spending. That’s a 16 percent increase over 2022 levels, when political advertisers dropped about $1.6 billion on streaming TV.
“If the last cycle marked streaming’s true arrival on the big stage, then this cycle will firmly cement its position in political video for the future,” Cross Screen Media’s report reads. “Linear TV will have more spend in 2026, but all signs point to that flipping before the end of the decade.”
–Updated on Nov. 17, 2025 at 2:50 p.m. ET
