Can Populism Reverse Democrats’ Fortunes in the Sunbelt?

A major Democratic donor group is calling on the party to tack in a more populist direction – and they’re out with new polling to help make their case.

The survey, conducted by Impact Research for Way to Win, shows Democrats trailing Republicans on the generic congressional ballot throughout the Sunbelt, the increasingly crucial cluster of states spanning from North Carolina to Arizona. With the exception of Georgia, GOP candidates have the edge in Arizona, Mississippi, Nevada, North Carolina and Texas. In battleground districts, Democrats are running a 7-point deficit behind Republicans.

The silver lining, according to Way to Win: Democrats have an advantage among the most motivated voters, and approval of President Donald Trump’s handling of the U.S. economy is underwater by 17 percentage points. 

The takeaway for Democrats, the group argues: lean into populism. 

The poll is based on responses from 1,282 likely voters in Arizona, Georgia, Mississippi, Nevada, North Carolina and Texas, and also delves into 14 congressional battleground districts across four of those states.

Here are a few takeaways from Way to Win’s polling. 

An Anti-Corporate Message Works

The poll tested a series of messages on the economy and found that a more left-wing framing – that the country’s economic problems “come from having an economy where large corporations and wealthy insiders have written the rules to benefit themselves, making life less affordable for everyone else” – breaks through. 

Fifty percent of voters overall – including 88 percent of progressive Democrats and 95 percent of centrist Democrats – said they are more likely to blame corporate greed and meddling for the country’s economic woes, according to the poll. 

Meanwhile, 46 percent of voters were more sympathetic to the more-traditionally Republican argument that the country’s economic problems stem from out-of-control government spending, too many immigrants entering the country, and leaders focusing on cultural issues instead of traditional values.” 

Voters in Battleground Districts Are More Eager for Populist Messaging

Across the six states included in the poll, voters were largely more likely to agree with a conventional Democratic message, arguing that, when it comes to jobs and the economy, the government should “cut middle-class taxes, reduce the costs of everyday expenses, and create more jobs.”

But another message resonated deeper with battleground voters: “Tax the ultra-rich, require big corporations to pay what they owe in taxes, and make sure jobs pay enough for people, not just to live, but to have a life.”

In fact, that message performed better with every single target persuasion subgroup included in the poll, including 88 percent of less-motivated Democrats and 68 percent of voters, who have unfavorable views of both major parties.

“Populist messages are generally more resonant than more conventional Democratic messages among voters who will be critical to upcoming elections,” the polling report reads, adding that “these messages show promise of rebuilding the coalition that Democrats have lost significant ground with; the working class, non-college educated voters, and voters of color.”

Republicans Still Have a Key Advantage

Voters overall are largely split on which party they trust to make the U.S. economy better, with 39 percent saying they trust Democrats more and 40 percent pointing to the GOP. 

But when it comes to the party that voters trust to improve their personal economic wellbeing, Republicans have a clear advantage.

Overall, 45 percent of voters said they trust Republicans to improve their personal financial positions compared to 33 percent who named Democrats. The gap wasn’t much narrower among voters in battleground districts; 46 percent vouched for Republicans, while 36 percent vouched for Democrats.