2026 Will Be the Most Expensive Cycle Ever, New Estimates Show
The 2026 midterms are poised to set an all-time record for political spending, according to new projections from ad-tracking firm AdImpact.
The updated estimates project that political spending this year will reach $11.6 billion. That’s about $795 million more than the $10.8 billion in spending that AdImpact estimated in its initial projections for the 2026 cycle last fall.
The spending projections are unprecedented. Not only do the new estimates eclipse the $8.9 billion spent during the last midterm cycle in 2022. They also outpace the $11.2 billion spent in the 2024 presidential election cycle.
“From record-setting races and surging party committee war chests to a competitive landscape that continues to expand, all indicators point to 2026 being the most expensive political advertising cycle in history,” AdImpact writes in an updated political projections report released on Thursday.
Current spending levels this cycle are running well ahead of previous election years, according to the report, while early pre-booking numbers suggest that spending is set to remain robust through the fall.
At the same time, AdImpact is revising its spending for nearly every advertising medium upward. Broadcast spending is rising from an estimated $5.3 billion to $5.6 billion, CTV spending is jumping from an estimated $2.5 billion to $2.7 billion, while cable is now expected to eat up about $1.4 billion in spending. Digital spending, meanwhile, is now projected to rise about 9 percent to $1.6 billion.
Radio and satellite spending are largely expected to hold steady from AdImpact’s original projections.
Of course, the spending projections aren’t expected to affect every market equally. AdImpact is revising their spending projections in Florida downward by about $200.1 million due to a lack of competitive statewide races and mid-decade redistricting efforts that created a handful of new Republican-leaning House seats.
States like New York and North Carolina also saw massive downward spending revisions, with AdImpact trimming off $167.1 million and $158.9 million in estimated spending, respectively. Michigan and California are also expected to see less spending than the firm originally projected.
Ohio, meanwhile, is now projected to see about $309 million more in spending than originally anticipated, thanks to competitive Senate and gubernatorial races. AdImpact is now expecting nearly $750 million to be spent in the Buckeye State this cycle.
Texas, where Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is set to take on scandal-plagued Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a high-profile Senate race, is also rising in spending estimates by about $288.5 million, bringing the total for 2026 to about $850 million, according to AdImpact. The Senate race alone is expected to account for $446 million.
Then there’s Maine, where a closely watched Senate race between Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and embattled Democratic nominee Graham Platner is helping push spending projections higher by about $185 million to a grand total of $491 million.
But it’s not just high-profile federal races that are driving the increased spending estimates. Downballot and state legislative spending are on track to reach record levels in 2026, according to AdImpact’s projections. About $3.7 billion is now expected to be spent on these contests, eclipsing the previous high of $3.2 billion set in 2022.
“Taken together, the 2026 Downballot and state legislative environment represents the most expensive nonfederal election cycle on record, driven by a combination of high-stakes ballot measures, competitive state elections, and redistricting battles,” the report reads.
