5 Ad Buys Worth Watching This Cycle
With political ad spending projections for the 2026 midterms reaching as high as $11.6 billion, campaigns and outside groups are letting loose across television, digital and CTV.
Here are five buys worth tracking as the post-Labor Day election spring nears:
Senate Leader Fund’s $6 Million Michigan Strike
The GOP super PAC’s TV and digital campaign targeting Michigan Democratic Senate hopeful Abdul El-Sayed brings SLF’s total Michigan commitment this cycle to $51 million. It’s part of an unusually early $12 million push to defend the party’s Senate majority.
The main super PAC backing Democratic Senate candidates, Senate Majority PAC, has begun buying airtime in Michigan, beginning earlier this month with a $3 million TV buy attacking Rogers. Meanwhile, an affiliated PAC called WinSenate has also dropped millions on anti-Rogers ads.
Senate Majority PAC’s $54 Million Battleground Expansion
The Senate Democrat-aligned super PAC added new reservations across four GOP-held seats, including $24 million in Ohio, $17 million in Iowa, $11 million in North Carolina and $2 million in Alaska, with messaging built around tariffs, Medicaid cuts and the war in Iran. It’ll be worth watching how much of that mix shifts toward digital and CTV as Election Day nears.
AIPAC’s Plans for Michigan
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s main super PAC, United Democracy Project, already spent $32 million on an unsuccessful effort to boost Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) in the Michigan Democratic Senate primary and blunt El-Sayed’s rise. What happens next remains to be seen. After the primary, the group planned to spend big on behalf of the Republican nominee, former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), but pulled back after Rogers and his allies reportedly expressed concern that the ads could become a political liability.
Still, AIPAC and United Democracy Project have a clear interest in opposing El-Sayed, who has campaigned as a vocal critic of Israel. How the group handles the general election in Michigan will be worth keeping an eye on, given United Democracy Project’s vast war chest.
North Carolina’s Dueling PAC Air War
The North Carolina Senate race has become one of the most contested battlegrounds for outside money, with PACs on both sides ramping up spending against Republican nominee Michael Whatley and Democratic nominee Roy Cooper. SMP announced in May that it would spend $31 million on ads backing Cooper before revealing earlier this month that it would add another $11 million to the effort.
SLF, meanwhile, has vowed to spend $71 million on the North Carolina race, including $17 million it spent this summer to boost Whatley and attack Cooper.
Dark Money in Maine
Dark money is funding nearly $75 million in advertising in the Maine Senate race, with Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) receiving the bulk of the support, according to a New York Times analysis. But it’s not just Republicans benefiting from dark money. Earlier this month, for example, a new PAC bankrolled by dark money groups called Government That Works PAC dropped $1.3 million on TV ads supporting Collins’ Democratic opponent, former Maine state Sen. Troy Jackson.
The money isn’t likely to stop flowing anytime soon. Democrats have been eager to oust Collins for years and see her seat as one of their best Senate pickup opportunities in 2026. Republicans, meanwhile, have a history of spending big to help Collins, making the coming spending war one to watch.
