How the Political Ad Wars Are Unfolding Right Now
The 2026 political ad wars are shaping up to be bigger, more digital and more lopsided than either side’s TV spending alone would suggest.
Political ad intelligence platform Kinetiq Political Insights is out with a post-Labor Day analysis of the political advertising landscape that shows the cycle still on track to reach nearly $12 billion in total spending between 2025 and 2026. But the real story is buried in the details.
Here’s where the ad wars stand right now:
We’re Still on Track to See an Ad Spending Record
KPI’s forecast is holding steady at $11.96 billion for the full 2025–2026 cycle, making it a coin flip on whether the total sum tops $12 billion. Of that amount, $10.35 billion is earmarked for races happening this year specifically, with the rest split between 2025 spending and the tail end of the cycle.
What’s particularly striking is where that spending is concentrated. Of the projected $10.35 billion in advertising spending this year, $7.5 billion of it is expected in 13 states: Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin.
Television has already aired $2.5 billion in ads through Sept. 11, according to KPI’s analysis. That’s up from $2.2 billion that had aired by the Friday of Labor Day week in 2022. When it’s all said and done, about $6.21 billion is projected to run on TV by the end of this cycle.
Outside Groups Are Dominating the Airwaves
Outside groups, including super PACs, have already reserved more than $1.2 billion combined in fall airtime. In fact, just four super PACs – the GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund and Senate Leadership Fund and the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC and WinSenate – have reserved nearly half of the fall on their own.
The partisan split isn’t even, however. Republican-aligned outside groups have reserved $720 million in fall airtime so far – more than every Democratic advertiser combined by about $64 million, according to KPI’s analysis.
The disparity isn’t all that surprising. After all, one of the biggest advantages Republicans have this cycle is money; GOP-aligned PACs and party committees have amassed huge war chests, though individual Democratic candidates – especially those in high-profile battlegrounds – have largely dominated the cycle in fundraising.
Still, the onslaught of GOP spending on fall airtime could help Republicans defend themselves in an otherwise unfavorable environment for the party.
Democrats Are Investing Big in Digital
Democrats have spent nearly twice as much on digital advertising as Republicans have, and that holds true across every type of spender.
The numbers make the disparity clear. Democratic-aligned super PACs and other outside groups have devoted about 26 percent of their ad budgets to digital, compared to just 14 percent for Republican super PACs and outside groups. Democratic House candidates, meanwhile, have put about 36 percent of their ad money into digital, while Republican House candidates put about 25 percent.
On the Senate side, Democrats still have the spending edge on digital, but the deficit isn’t as stark; Democratic Senate candidates have dedicated about 27 percent of their ad budgets to digital, while Republican Senate candidates have spent about 22 percent.
